@Anthony I think this should just close ambiguously and a new question should be opened.

It seems plausible at this point that it'll never be settled, so maybe requiring unanimity isn't a great idea for a longer resolution date.

One of my favorite papers, Divided We Stand? Democracy as a Method of Processing Conflicts, has some nice data showing that the richer a democracy is, the less likely it is to fall, and above a fairly low threshold it's never happened.

The US is the richest country in the history of the world. It's the least likely under this model. Certainly well below base rates.

It seems clear that community won't be at 97+ and I'm fairly confident that the 3 people won't all believe lab escape is more likely than not. This either resolves ambiguously or negatively.

@Anthony have you generated random numbers and reached out to the three people on your list?

Option prices as of today imply 80% odds of this.


The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident. (81% probability)

Sandisk is the only player in the market. Micron has twice announced a card and never actually launched.

Last time around, Samsung priced a 512GB card at $99 first, and Samsung hasn't even made a 1TB card. https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/6/18531448/sa…

I think that a drop to $99 won't happen until there's more competition, and that's around a year out, considering that these tend to be announced months before launch. And I don't expect a drop to $99 until a few months after competition launches.


There were no “faithless electors” this year, which is when presidential electors vote for someone else other than their state’s popular vote winner.

@admins, this resolves at 0.


After rising steadily for decades, global carbon dioxide emissions fell by 6.4%, or 2.3 billion tonnes, in 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic squelched economic and social activities worldwide, according to new data on daily fossil fuel emissions.

Researchers published emissions data for the first half of 2020 in October1, but provided a complete set to Nature this week.

@admins, resolves negatively.

Will the supreme court hear oral arguments on any lawsuit challenging election results before Jan 20th?

Conditional on the above resolving positively, how many justices will rule for the Republican side in the first such case? (Maybe also a question on unanimous or not?)

@PabloStafforini I don't think it's ambiguous.

If one dose is sufficient for 75% effectiveness, then that's all that's needed. If two doses are required, then the question likewise depends on that.

Revising higher now that it seems likely that Scott won't care as much about being doxxed, and NYT seems unlikely to withhold his name if he cares less.


A total of 34,204 plug-in vehicles (28,034 BEVs and 6,170 PHEVs) were sold during September 2020 in the United States, up 3.2% from the sales in September 2019. PEVs captured 2.54% of total LDV sales in this month.

Cumulatively, 198,394 PHEVs and BEVs have been sold in 2020. In total, 1,642,021 PHEVs and BEVs have been sold since 2010.