@Anthony I think this should just close ambiguously and a new question should be opened.

It seems plausible at this point that it'll never be settled, so maybe requiring unanimity isn't a great idea for a longer resolution date.

One of my favorite papers, Divided We Stand? Democracy as a Method of Processing Conflicts, has some nice data showing that the richer a democracy is, the less likely it is to fall, and above a fairly low threshold it's never happened.

The US is the richest country in the history of the world. It's the least likely under this model. Certainly well below base rates.

It seems clear that community won't be at 97+ and I'm fairly confident that the 3 people won't all believe lab escape is more likely than not. This either resolves ambiguously or negatively.

@doromix1.6 please let me know here or at metaculus at thimessolutions dot com how you prefer to be paid

@Anthony have you generated random numbers and reached out to the three people on your list?

I've moved to 75% because they arguably resolved the NYC reopen market incorrectly. https://polymarket.com/market/will-nyc-fully-reopen-by-july-1 the rules are here. As of July 1st, City employees were required to social distance in offices. The City is the largest employer in NYC with hundreds of thousands of employees that had these distancing requirements across thousands of offices. From https://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/474-21/transcript-mayor-de-blasio-holds-media-availability: >And an announcement today that for vaccinated City...

Option prices as of today imply 80% odds of this.


experimentation, animal handling, or sampling

I think sampling includes scenarios such as "it was picked up by researchers in a bat cave and spread by them" that don't involve a lab leak in the sense as this question would require.


The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident. (81% probability)

If the human condition hasn't changed between 1900 and today, then similar growth over the next 80 years also won't qualify. Longer lifespans or higher IQ as mentioned in other comments are likely to be the same order of magnitude as the gains since 1900.

I'd be lower, but AI is a wildcard and deferring somewhat to community.

— edited by AvrahamEisenberg

I really don't see how you get to 5% here. Even if there was life on Venus, the probability of detecting it beyond reasonable doubt within 15 years seems on the order of 10%, and I think there's less than a 10% chance of there actually being life. (We're not getting beyond reasonable doubt without sending probes; we need a tech advance to get probes capable of surviving long enough to acquire evidence; we need to design and launch and land one within the next 15 years; we probably need to bring back specimens as photographic evidence will be subject ...

Sandisk is the only player in the market. Micron has twice announced a card and never actually launched.

Last time around, Samsung priced a 512GB card at $99 first, and Samsung hasn't even made a 1TB card. https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/6/18531448/sa…

I think that a drop to $99 won't happen until there's more competition, and that's around a year out, considering that these tend to be announced months before launch. And I don't expect a drop to $99 until a few months after competition launches.

FYI I'm willing to bet No at 6:1 odds (in my favor, implied probability for Yes 84%) or possibly better, offer me if you're highly confident.

— edited by AvrahamEisenberg