Came here to note this paper also. For the record, when I wrote the question this is the sort of system I had in mind to resolve it. I doubt this actual system resolves it, but a future version of this system that did perform well enough would satisfy the "unified system" criterion.
This looks like Metaculus's worst continuous question prediction to date, by a significant margin...
I knew we should not have put the servers in Nevada...
Unless something very disruptive happens, having a real hard time seeing how going from Gato to resolving this question is going to take 9 years....
I'd like to meta-predict that no matter how dire things start to look for Trump (if they do), this question will have a floor of ~20%, because predictors will be so psychologically burned by the last election that they will be loathe to go below that.
Obviously anything below 99% should be considered (99% minus) an estimate of global catastrophic risk, as it's impossible to imagine anything else getting in the way of Metaculus' indefinite existence.
@Tamay It seems to me virtually certain that before a human is emulated other creatures would be, for example a mouse or a fruit fly. It might be useful to have a question or two that are similar but likely to happen earlier, e.g. first insect emulated, and how much computation (I'd do in FLOPS rather than $ to simplify things) necessary.
It's a sad turn we've taken from "will a Metaculus user report from space" to "will a Metaculus user report infection."
To be clear, this is a work-from-home job!
Uh-oh, we've just pushed an update that might at least help with the UI on android mobile, along with a bunch more upgrades. So @traviswfisher see if this helps at all.
Definitely more ways for predictors to compare/compete are in the works. While we don't have formal "seasons", meantime do note that you can look at the recent leaderboard to see how you are doing more short term.
@sluddani There are about 1000 monthly (registered) visitors, 750 of which made predictions and 150 of which made comments.
There's a pretty amusing irony that looks likely in that
Metaculus will have predicted (on this question) a Democratic senate with high probability, and been incorrect.
Metaculus will have predicted a relatively low probability of a Democratic senate (this other question) and also been incorrect.
Corner cases, will bite you every time!!
Yet another reminder to oh-so-carefully craft those resolution conditions to maximally align the letter with the spirit.
@elspeth That's the reason but it's a big one. This would be a pretty tricky one to exactly pin down to Metaculus standards. It would also be very awkward on all sides if the Metaculus resolution did not agree with the settling of the bet.
Kudos to @Jgalt for a terrific and prolific set of questions, now surpassing 20 in play!