@Jgalt I think that's a fair judgement.
When submitted my forecast i was thinking of current members and hadn't really considered the election.
Looks like this can be resolved: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec…
@evanbd I think this would be a great idea.
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Bounced Back Sharply in 2021
Emissions rose 6 percent last year after a record 10 percent decline in 2020, fueled by a rise in coal power and truck traffic as the U.S. economy rebounded from the pandemic.
I suppose in retrospect a better formulation of the question would have been the complement to "will the rating fall into a junk bond rating" and be "will Twitter retain an investment grade credit rating?" . In that case one could have set the criteria as will twitter retain BBB- equivalent or greater credit ratings from at least two agencies.
It appears some 70 episodes of The Joe Rogan Experience are being quietly removed from the platform.
Joe Rogan Apologizes for ‘Shameful’ Past Use of Racial Slur https://nyti.ms/35HbpQM
His apology came as listeners said that as many as 70 episodes of “The Joe Rogan Experience” podcast had been quietly taken off Spotify; the company has yet to comment on the reported removals.
— edited by AnotherWorld
The good news is that there is an Obergefell question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10686/obe…
I'm curious what you think of the rise to $20k and subsequent crash was about. Was the rise premature, was the crash baseless? How do you interpret that event?
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@EvanHarper I do see that bump around 20%. Maybe they're on Metaculus :)
I didn't even know that. Thanks for pointing that out.
How does this question count an elected official who was not yet sworn in?
Actually, I have one more question. What would it take for your forecast to dip below 50%? What set of facts would we hypothetically have to observe for you to feel like this won't most likely happen by 2025?
Seems like the data has been revised here
You're fluidly transitioning between your personal assessment of value and the one based on a going market rate. These are distinct. If we want to use beliefs about the future, as in this question, then yeah as a proper bayesian there is clearly a non-zero probability of those currencies being valuable either as collector's items or in some contrived scenario or another.
If current market value is king, then this whole question is silly because the value of BTC is what it is and the market price should be a martingale.
Obviously I agree with your conclusion about EMH or I wouldn't be forecasting on this question. I was just trying to show that you should chill out on using current lack of transactions as proof of a concrete zero value.
An important skill for accurate forecasting is the ability to seriously consider ideas with which you don't agree or currently think to be unlikely.