But those are Elon Musk's years.


Welcome to Metaculus. The purpose of this question - and generally, of this site - is to make predictions about what will happen, not to discuss what people should do.

I would suggest a button to let the administrators or moderators know that a question is ready to resolve.

I don't see the point in withdrawing; it seems more effective to violate the treaty without withdrawing, unless it's only for saber-ratting purposes (improbable I think).

For example, suppose they release a self-driving software that reduces crashes and deaths compared to human drivers by 5x and 10x respectively, but which has bugs and sometimes causes crashes and deaths that human drivers very likely would avoid (which leads to bug fixes, but it takes time and there are more bugs). The system is widely used, so by 2032 there is more than $1bn dollars damage due to, say, hundreds of thousands of small crashes and much fewer big ones. These incidents would likely have been avoided with human drivers, though worse ones woul...
@(notany) Dead moral agents cannot understand apologies, either, yet formal apologies by governments are sometimes (often) to them. Moreover, as I see it, an apology, in daily life, implies a recognition of one's wrongdoing, an expression of regret, and a promise not to do it again (plus some other things, I'm not saying these conditions are equivalent). When a government issues an apology for things other people did (and they're not relaying an apology), that seems not to be an actual apology in the usual sense (in many cases), unless they're confuse...


The most likely reason would be that China attacks, loses the war and is forced to recognize Taiwan. It seem very improbable to me, though. I'm at 3%.

@(satisficer) I would add that this is not net support or net opposition to the legality of interracial marriage, but to a federal law protecting the right to it. A person may well oppose such a law for reasons not related to an intention to ban interracial marriage, such as: 1. The person believes it's a state matter, and is against federal encroachment - even if they support state laws allowing it. 2. The person believes it's protected constitutionally, and a law would add nothing and would only be used to score political/ideological points. 3. The...


I'm not from the US, either, but I'm pretty sure he does not control the Supreme Court (not even "kind of").

— edited by AngraMainyu


It's speculative, but I would not rule out that Musk may be more optimistic than 60%, even if publicly he says 60%. There is a bit of an incentive to give lower probability than actually expected, I think: if he says, say, 80% and fails, that would probably be seen as a bigger failure than 60%, whereas success will be seen as a lesser one.

Incentives are different with long-term predictions, I think.

@(kievalet) The resolution criterion says: "This question will resolve as Yes if Donald Trump declares his candidacy for the 2024 US Presidential Election." Trump can declare his candidacy regardless of the above considerations (aside from that, I do not think he would be prevented from taking office if he got enough votes to have a majority of electors, but that could be another question, conditional to Trump's running and winning), and I don't see a strong incentive to avoid them due to perjury charges. On the contrary, if he thinks he can win, he ...

This question illustrates why I don't like questions that close near resolution date, or within the time frame of probable resolution dates. It's just a matter of following the news and updating accordingly, so the system rewards persistent news followers who dedicate a lot of time to update their predictions.


It's because I think there is little chance.

@Uncle Jeff

Resolution says "it" (i.e., Twitter) has intentionally...suspended, etc.:; if a Twitter employee decides to do it on their own, I don't think that that would count as Twitter intentionally suspending, etc.

@(gristedes) wrote: > Any country or person which aspired to this level of control over the freedom of people would very clearly be a fascist, controlling state. Only a vegan could come up with a question like this and fail to see the enormous infringement on the rights and living standards of human beings. If you are now saying to yourself “what about the rights of animals??” I suggest you give yourself a slap. Animal rights, while important are SECONDARY TO HUMAN RIGHTS AND ALWAYS SHOULD BE. No animal should go through unnecessary suffering but my righ...

What about the Wikipedia article on Waymo, specifically about robo-taxis?


It seems to me the article says it's commercially available, and probably it's been so for more than 6 months. Granted, it does not say it's level 4 in the part about robo-taxis. But the same article does say that some of the cars tested in Arizona are level 4, and the description matches that of the robo-taxis in Phoenix.

This comment was originally posted on L4

It seems [the shutdown is affecting NASA and delaying publications](https://governmentshutdown.noaa.gov/), though it seems [near the end of 2018](https://grist.org/article/its-nearly-official-2018-was-the-4th-warmest-year-in-recorded-history/), NASA said 2018 was almost certainly the 4th warmest (if the source is correct, that is). In any case, there is no shutdown in the EU, and the [EU's Copernicus Climate Change Center](https://climate.copernicus.eu) reports that [2018 was the fourth warmest year on record](https://climate.copernicus.eu/last-four-ye...

@Uncle Jeff

I lost a lot of points here, but still, it was my mistake not to attribute a reasonably high probability that the ICG was not a reliable source and could go either way for no good reason.

This is odd. Metaculus appears in Czech to me! Nearly everything on the website is now in Czech - not the content of the posts, of course, but most of the messages and titles from the site. For example, as I am editing this post, under my name it reads " poskytli obecný komentář před 12 sekundami ". Really weird. But "edited by AngraMainyu" does appear in English.

— edited by AngraMainyu