Welcome to Metaculus. The purpose of this question - and generally, of this site - is to make predictions about what will happen, not to discuss what people should do.
But those are Elon Musk's years.
I would suggest a button to let the administrators or moderators know that a question is ready to resolve.
I'm not from the US, either, but I'm pretty sure he does not control the Supreme Court (not even "kind of").
— edited by AngraMainyu
It's speculative, but I would not rule out that Musk may be more optimistic than 60%, even if publicly he says 60%. There is a bit of an incentive to give lower probability than actually expected, I think: if he says, say, 80% and fails, that would probably be seen as a bigger failure than 60%, whereas success will be seen as a lesser one.
Incentives are different with long-term predictions, I think.
This question illustrates why I don't like questions that close near resolution date, or within the time frame of probable resolution dates. It's just a matter of following the news and updating accordingly, so the system rewards persistent news followers who dedicate a lot of time to update their predictions.
This did not happen.
Resolution says "it" (i.e., Twitter) has intentionally...suspended, etc.:; if a Twitter employee decides to do it on their own, I don't think that that would count as Twitter intentionally suspending, etc.
It's because I think there is little chance.
I lost a lot of points here, but still, it was my mistake not to attribute a reasonably high probability that the ICG was not a reliable source and could go either way for no good reason.
This did not happen. Will the question be repeated for 2020? Or maybe a longer period? (also, how about "Does Planet Nine exist?")
Regarding low to no stocks of "essential food", should we take this as lacking some usual food items, or lacking so much that proper nutrition is not achievable with what is available?
For example, if, say, tomorrow chicken products (eggs, meat) were absent from the shelves but nothing else were, would that count?
How about a question? "Will the US attack China in the next X years, giving as a rationale the development of biological weapons or other WMDs and/or genetic engineering in China?"
The most likely reason would be that China attacks, loses the war and is forced to recognize Taiwan. It seem very improbable to me, though. I'm at 3%.
Even at night, or heavy rain? Without a hardware update, from what I've read that seems improbable. But then again, Waymo's taxis will be L4 and soon sufficiently available for the question, it seems to me.