But those are Elon Musk's years.
Welcome to Metaculus. The purpose of this question - and generally, of this site - is to make predictions about what will happen, not to discuss what people should do.
I would suggest a button to let the administrators or moderators know that a question is ready to resolve.
I don't see the point in withdrawing; it seems more effective to violate the treaty without withdrawing, unless it's only for saber-ratting purposes (improbable I think).
I'm not from the US, either, but I'm pretty sure he does not control the Supreme Court (not even "kind of").
— edited by AngraMainyu
It's speculative, but I would not rule out that Musk may be more optimistic than 60%, even if publicly he says 60%. There is a bit of an incentive to give lower probability than actually expected, I think: if he says, say, 80% and fails, that would probably be seen as a bigger failure than 60%, whereas success will be seen as a lesser one.
Incentives are different with long-term predictions, I think.
The most likely reason would be that China attacks, loses the war and is forced to recognize Taiwan. It seem very improbable to me, though. I'm at 3%.
This question illustrates why I don't like questions that close near resolution date, or within the time frame of probable resolution dates. It's just a matter of following the news and updating accordingly, so the system rewards persistent news followers who dedicate a lot of time to update their predictions.
It's because I think there is little chance.
This did not happen.
Resolution says "it" (i.e., Twitter) has intentionally...suspended, etc.:; if a Twitter employee decides to do it on their own, I don't think that that would count as Twitter intentionally suspending, etc.
What about the Wikipedia article on Waymo, specifically about robo-taxis?
It seems to me the article says it's commercially available, and probably it's been so for more than 6 months. Granted, it does not say it's level 4 in the part about robo-taxis. But the same article does say that some of the cars tested in Arizona are level 4, and the description matches that of the robo-taxis in Phoenix.
This comment was originally posted on L4
I lost a lot of points here, but still, it was my mistake not to attribute a reasonably high probability that the ICG was not a reliable source and could go either way for no good reason.
This did not happen. Will the question be repeated for 2020? Or maybe a longer period? (also, how about "Does Planet Nine exist?")