But those are Elon Musk's years.


Welcome to Metaculus. The purpose of this question - and generally, of this site - is to make predictions about what will happen, not to discuss what people should do.

I would suggest a button to let the administrators or moderators know that a question is ready to resolve.


I'm not from the US, either, but I'm pretty sure he does not control the Supreme Court (not even "kind of").

— edited by AngraMainyu

@(notany) Dead moral agents cannot understand apologies, either, yet formal apologies by governments are sometimes (often) to them. Moreover, as I see it, an apology, in daily life, implies a recognition of one's wrongdoing, an expression of regret, and a promise not to do it again (plus some other things, I'm not saying these conditions are equivalent). When a government issues an apology for things other people did (and they're not relaying an apology), that seems not to be an actual apology in the usual sense (in many cases), unless they're confuse...


It's speculative, but I would not rule out that Musk may be more optimistic than 60%, even if publicly he says 60%. There is a bit of an incentive to give lower probability than actually expected, I think: if he says, say, 80% and fails, that would probably be seen as a bigger failure than 60%, whereas success will be seen as a lesser one.

Incentives are different with long-term predictions, I think.

This question illustrates why I don't like questions that close near resolution date, or within the time frame of probable resolution dates. It's just a matter of following the news and updating accordingly, so the system rewards persistent news followers who dedicate a lot of time to update their predictions.

@Uncle Jeff

Resolution says "it" (i.e., Twitter) has intentionally...suspended, etc.:; if a Twitter employee decides to do it on their own, I don't think that that would count as Twitter intentionally suspending, etc.

@(gristedes) wrote: > Any country or person which aspired to this level of control over the freedom of people would very clearly be a fascist, controlling state. Only a vegan could come up with a question like this and fail to see the enormous infringement on the rights and living standards of human beings. If you are now saying to yourself “what about the rights of animals??” I suggest you give yourself a slap. Animal rights, while important are SECONDARY TO HUMAN RIGHTS AND ALWAYS SHOULD BE. No animal should go through unnecessary suffering but my righ...


It's because I think there is little chance.

It seems [the shutdown is affecting NASA and delaying publications](https://governmentshutdown.noaa.gov/), though it seems [near the end of 2018](https://grist.org/article/its-nearly-official-2018-was-the-4th-warmest-year-in-recorded-history/), NASA said 2018 was almost certainly the 4th warmest (if the source is correct, that is). In any case, there is no shutdown in the EU, and the [EU's Copernicus Climate Change Center](https://climate.copernicus.eu) reports that [2018 was the fourth warmest year on record](https://climate.copernicus.eu/last-four-ye...

@Uncle Jeff

I lost a lot of points here, but still, it was my mistake not to attribute a reasonably high probability that the ICG was not a reliable source and could go either way for no good reason.

This did not happen. Will the question be repeated for 2020? Or maybe a longer period? (also, how about "Does Planet Nine exist?")


The most likely reason would be that China attacks, loses the war and is forced to recognize Taiwan. It seem very improbable to me, though. I'm at 3%.

What about the Wikipedia article on Waymo, specifically about robo-taxis?


It seems to me the article says it's commercially available, and probably it's been so for more than 6 months. Granted, it does not say it's level 4 in the part about robo-taxis. But the same article does say that some of the cars tested in Arizona are level 4, and the description matches that of the robo-taxis in Phoenix.

For example, suppose they release a self-driving software that reduces crashes and deaths compared to human drivers by 5x and 10x respectively, but which has bugs and sometimes causes crashes and deaths that human drivers very likely would avoid (which leads to bug fixes, but it takes time and there are more bugs). The system is widely used, so by 2032 there is more than $1bn dollars damage due to, say, hundreds of thousands of small crashes and much fewer big ones. These incidents would likely have been avoided with human drivers, though worse ones woul...


I think Mars will not be more hospitable to human life than Earth, even after a full-scale nuclear war, or any of the most probable (I'd say still extremely improbable, though) sorts of apocalypse.

I don't think this is actually a retracted concession. To say that Biden won because it's rigged may be a concession according to the question, but it's not in reality a concession, as he was not actually admitting that he lost the election, but rather was claiming that Biden cheated and it's not an actual win, regardless of the literal "he won because..." That seems pretty clear to me given context. His statement was mistakenly portrayed as a concession, and then he clarified that he was not conceding, rather than retract a concession. But I suppose ...

Regarding low to no stocks of "essential food", should we take this as lacking some usual food items, or lacking so much that proper nutrition is not achievable with what is available?

For example, if, say, tomorrow chicken products (eggs, meat) were absent from the shelves but nothing else were, would that count?