In my opinion, people who think that he'll want Harris to take over before the end of his term have not presented strong arguments. Instead, as far as I can tell, they are relying on their mistaken beliefs that
A) Biden is severely cognitively impaired and B) Their belief that he will either recognize this and voluntarily choose to step down or will be somehow coerced into doing so.
Others believe he'll be impeached and removed. There is not even weak evidence to suggest this.
Death is of course an option as well, which is why I have it at 3%
I'm not really following your rather complicated analysis. Are you claiming China will be more sanctioned than Russia by February 2023? If so, that sounds like an interesting prediction to have the community weigh in on, if you wanted to make another forecast.
Not disagreeing with your other points, but unemployment is currently as low as it has been in 54 years. The country is not currently dealing with stagflation. Public perception of this may be quite different, unemployment could spike between now and the election, etc etc but factually there is no current stagflation.
Excellent analytical framework, thank you.