@(steven0461) The leading experts predict that as much as 30-50% of America could become infected. So first of all, I would argue that that 2% number is way to low. But regardless, it's a matter of statistics. Say that 2% gets infected. Now say that Metaculus is a random sampling of the population. Not quite true, but let's run with it. You just need one person for this to resolve true. So now you have a 98% chance that any random person on Metaculus is not sick. Two people? Multiply the percentages to get 96% that both don't have it. Let's use the numb...

@godshatter Can we keep in mind that at least PredictIt in particular has almost not budged at all in the last, what? 2-3 months? Minor fluctuations, but they are basically not reacting to polls or news or anything of that sort, so lowers my belief in them a decent amount.

@Jgalt I wouldn't give this too much weight since all states including blue ones like NY and CA have basically a 3-to-1 Trump/Biden ratio. This is just likely due to Trump being the sitting president.

How does this resolve if the President dies in office?

I'm looking at some data from [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/). The last column is Total Cases/1 Mil population. This can basically give us an idea of the percent of the population that got infected. For instance, cases in China have essentially stabilized and extra hospitals are closing. Active cases are plummeting and new cases each day are 50ish. Their final (or soon to be final) population infection percent is 0.00056% or 1/18000. South Korea's infections are finally slowing. You can see their [graph turning logistic](http...

@EvanHarper Agreed. Especially since developing nations are likely going to be the tipping point over 1 mil, but they won't have accurate data.

The last time BTC was worth 1k was Feb 12th, 2017. That's a full 4 years ago. The lowest it's been since the 2017 bubble was 3350ish. That's more than 3x 1k. Since then tons of investment companies have added it to their portfolios and it's had quite a large adoption. I'm not saying that the price won't ever go sub 20k or even sub 10k, but to think it will go below 1k this year with a 10% chance is pretty out of touch, imo.

— edited by AlertFoxes