@godshatter Can we keep in mind that at least PredictIt in particular has almost not budged at all in the last, what? 2-3 months? Minor fluctuations, but they are basically not reacting to polls or news or anything of that sort, so lowers my belief in them a decent amount.
@Jgalt I wouldn't give this too much weight since all states including blue ones like NY and CA have basically a 3-to-1 Trump/Biden ratio. This is just likely due to Trump being the sitting president.
How does this resolve if the President dies in office?
@Jgalt Thank you, didn't see that one!
@EvanHarper Agreed. Especially since developing nations are likely going to be the tipping point over 1 mil, but they won't have accurate data.
The last time BTC was worth 1k was Feb 12th, 2017. That's a full 4 years ago. The lowest it's been since the 2017 bubble was 3350ish. That's more than 3x 1k. Since then tons of investment companies have added it to their portfolios and it's had quite a large adoption. I'm not saying that the price won't ever go sub 20k or even sub 10k, but to think it will go below 1k this year with a 10% chance is pretty out of touch, imo.
— edited by AlertFoxes