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— edited by Aithir
What reasons are there still left to doubt an invasion? I was at 44% for some time, but now am at 91%. Distrust in western media/institutions kept my estimate low, but at this point russian media (as far as I can tell, I don't speak Russian) reports indicate an invasion as well. @those who still are below 80%. Why?
@Big-eyed You can look at your brier score and set evaluated at to all times. That is the relevant metric as far as I am concerned.
62 percent of voters say Putin wouldn't have invaded Ukraine if Trump were president
This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump
Since January the metaculus community went from 41% to 45%. Is this a result of the Russia invading Ukraine situation? Intuitively it seems that the questions aren't independent of each other, but I don't know enough about how the US military functions to be sure or to what extent they are interdependent. Maybe someone could elaborate?
The Economist's model gives him a 24% chance of advancing to round 2 and a 1% chance of winning the presidency.
@ugandamaximum I think that most of his followers don't care, but certain influential people who pay more attention to details will. For example Ben Shapiro really doesn't like Nick Fuentes and his support for Trump was already shaky. An example for a potential donor is Miriam Adelson (widow of Sheldon Adelson). Not saying that they will make a full 180, just that they might be more hesistant in their support.
A good way not to accidentally dine with a vile racist and anti-Semite you don't know is not to dine with a vile racist and anti-Semite you do know. - Ben Shapiro
I will also point out that Biden thought it was a good idea to start his campaign against Trump by attacking him over Charlottesville and managed to win with this strategy against a sitting president. (Obviously there is more to it, but still)
Will NATO/EU/USA impose a noflyzone over Ukraine?
Did the pollsters change their methodology since their poor performance in the first round?
For whatever reason I predicted 21.71 which really was my lower limit. I don't know what went on there in my mind. Reminder to myself to not be dumb.
Is anyone else interested in a question about the success of TRUTH Social? I am just not sure if it makes sense to create such a question now since we don't know too much about it at this point.
— edited by Aithir
I don't think the market is that good at predicting elections which is why I give it less weight in my calculation.
0.42 * 0.2 + 0.39 * 0.4 + 0.354 * 0.4 = 0.3816
I am surprised that the mean prediction is still above 50%.