Nothing will count as a cancellation the way the question is asked currently, because their Terms of Use state this

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— edited by Aithir

What reasons are there still left to doubt an invasion? I was at 44% for some time, but now am at 91%. Distrust in western media/institutions kept my estimate low, but at this point russian media (as far as I can tell, I don't speak Russian) reports indicate an invasion as well. @those who still are below 80%. Why?

There are over 700 billionaires in the USA. [Most don't hold political positions relevant for this question.]( Musk isn't Christan and autistically honest about his beliefs, so I don't think he can run as a Republican. However he is also pro free speech, fiscally conservative/libertarian and doesn't like the Woke very much. So maybe he can run on a moderate Democrat platform. Alternatively he could run as a Libertarian or Independent. But that, even with how well known he is, would make ...

@Big-eyed You can look at your brier score and set evaluated at to all times. That is the relevant metric as far as I am concerned.

Since January the metaculus community went from 41% to 45%. Is this a result of the Russia invading Ukraine situation? Intuitively it seems that the questions aren't independent of each other, but I don't know enough about how the US military functions to be sure or to what extent they are interdependent. Maybe someone could elaborate?

@(SebastianJensen) I am too stupid to know how exactly LOESS works, I only know simple least square regression and can't code either, so please correct me if I misunderstand something. According to the model it is relatively certain that LePen's recent catch up will continue into the future even surpassing Macron and I don't think this is how these trends work. As far as I can tell the trend might stay that way, might reverse or something inbetween and there is no reason, judging from other elections, that it continuing is so much more likely than the ...

The Economist's model gives him a 24% chance of advancing to round 2 and a 1% chance of winning the presidency.

@ugandamaximum I think that most of his followers don't care, but certain influential people who pay more attention to details will. For example Ben Shapiro really doesn't like Nick Fuentes and his support for Trump was already shaky. An example for a potential donor is Miriam Adelson (widow of Sheldon Adelson). Not saying that they will make a full 180, just that they might be more hesistant in their support.

[Joe Biden's gaffe may have inadvertently revealed the truth about his Ukraine policy ]( >The US President appeared to say that, if Vladimir Putin were to make only a "minor incursion" into Ukraine, then Russia would not face devastating sanctions. >His exact words were: "Russia will be held accountable if it invades. And it depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we (in Nato) end up having to fight about what to do and w...

A good way not to accidentally dine with a vile racist and anti-Semite you don't know is not to dine with a vile racist and anti-Semite you do know. - Ben Shapiro

I will also point out that Biden thought it was a good idea to start his campaign against Trump by attacking him over Charlottesville and managed to win with this strategy against a sitting president. (Obviously there is more to it, but still)

Did the pollsters change their methodology since their poor performance in the first round?

For whatever reason I predicted 21.71 which really was my lower limit. I don't know what went on there in my mind. Reminder to myself to not be dumb.

Is anyone else interested in a question about the success of TRUTH Social? I am just not sure if it makes sense to create such a question now since we don't know too much about it at this point.

— edited by Aithir

electionbettingodds: 42%

538: 39%

Decision Desk HQ: 35.4%

I don't think the market is that good at predicting elections which is why I give it less weight in my calculation.

0.42 * 0.2 + 0.39 * 0.4 + 0.354 * 0.4 = 0.3816

I am surprised that the mean prediction is still above 50%.

I would like a question asking whether a non-avian dinosaur will be revived this century. Alternatively predicting the date of its revival would also be good, maybe analogous to this [mammoth question]( Unfortunately I see these potential problems: 1) Is the term *non-avian dinosaur* good enough to not have the question resolve due to some technicality? Maybe an "at least 90% non-avian dinosaur DNA clause"? 2) Is what [Wikipedia says]( tru...
@(Aithir) Some updates on my thought process. I am at 76% now. >-The US is unwilling to seriously oppose an invasion by China (see Ukraine atm). I am less certain about this now than I used to be. >-China might be so patient to wait till after 2050 Extremely unlikely >-I think China isn't as competent as many voices in the west make it out to be More certain of that than I used to be, see for example the Shanghai lockdown. Also just to clarify. I think China will be capable of an invasion in the future. But there are of course other pathways to a ...