State of the climate: 2020 on course to be warmest year on record

Concrete probability estimates from different sources:

  • NOAA GlobalTemp: 61%
  • Berkeley Earth: 52%
  • Copernicus/ECMWF: 55%
Where do YouTube videos fit in the [evidence pyramid]( Anyway, for lack of anything better... ([1]( has 3 subjects and 2 rounds. They get 5/6 right, only one false negative (beef identified as plant-based). ([2]( makes it look like all subjects agreed on every product, which is suspicious. Using this metric, they got 3/4 right - a meatless chicken burger fooled all of them. ([3](https://www.y...

I would be extremely interested in a series of questions along the lines of "Will charter cities/ZEDEs work?"

This is a minor thing, but anyway: why can't we use Markdown ~~strikethrough~~ in comments? I think it would be useful for edits.

@WilliamKiely this also happens to be my top scoring question so far, but I would attribute most of it to the use of narrow peaks around integers. So, if I were to blame this outcome on a Metaculus feature, my top pick would be the lack of non-binary categorical questions.

538's median forecast as of two days ago had only three states with margins between first and second smaller than the vote share for all other candidates combined. These are (R-D margin / other candidates' share):

  • OH: +0.17% / 1.01%
  • ME-2: -0.39% / 1.60%
  • GA: -0.04 / 0.78%

EDIT: West is not on the ballot in any of them.

— edited by 2e10e122

> Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045 Not sure where the claim is coming from, but [her own 2017 meta-analysis]( seems to be inconsistent with this. Average sperm counts in 2010 were slightly above 200M and declining at a rate of ~2.2M per year, so it would take at least until ~2100 to get to zero. Maybe she has reason to believe there are other factors in play that would accelerate the decline. I don't see any evidence of that in that meta-analysis or in [her ...

My main uncertainty is this: how likely is the average Republican Senator to think preventing Trump from running in 2024 is in their own interest?

@Jgalt wow, I was not expecting this level of partisanship on a prediction. It really is a strange world out there.

GJOpen has: - [Perdue (R) 70%]( - [Loeffler (R) 60%]( PredictIt has: - [Perdue (R) 83%]( - [Loeffler (R) 75%](

Over the last 20 years, space tourists have paid 30M-55M USD to go to the ISS (in 2020 dollars). Since this is a short suborbital flight, I assume the price should be lower. On the other hand, buyers may put a prime on this being Blue Origin's first commercial flight and on sharing it with Bezos.

I downloaded the raw data from The Economist's forecast and ran

d = pd.read_csv('electoral_college_simulations.csv')
d[(d.natl_pop_vote > 1/2) & (d.dem_ev < 270)].shape[0] / d[d.dem_ev < 270].shape[0]

which gives a surprisingly high probability of 78%. I'm rounding it down to 75%.

When will the covid-19 lockdown be lifted in [each of these locations: Italy, Spain, France, San Francisco]?

[SpaceX to Launch DOGE-1 to the Moon!]( > Geometric Energy Corporation (GEC) announced today the DOGE-1 Mission to the Moon—the first-ever commercial lunar payload in history paid entirely with DOGE—will launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. > > Geometric Energy Corporation's DOGE-1 Mission to the Moon will involve Geometric Space Corporation (GSC) mission management collaborating with SpaceX to launch a 40kg cubesat as a rideshare on a Falcon 9 lunar payload mis...

GJOpen currently giving a 5% chance to "Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?"

New paper claims the observation that motivated the hypothesis of a Planet Nine goes away after controlling for selection bias.

I'd be interested in mapping how much attention and resources the ethics of in silico consciousness will attract in the near future. Some example questions:

  • What will be the budget/workforce size of petrl in [year]?

  • Will an EA organization support the cause of artificial consciousness? (maybe a more specific phrasing would be needed since some s-risk people might already be working on this)

I have revised my prediction substantially upwards after downloading 538's forecast and automatically tagging every candidate's gender. Some names are ambiguous so I have added more uncertainty to account for that. I may narrow it down later if I'm not too lazy to manually tag the ones that are left.

[Disclaimer: I am only moderately confident I got this right] [This site]( shows that someone betting on PI according to 538's probabilities would've had a ROI of 1.5% over the last 5 months. I assume they're in the "ideal" case with no betting limits, fees, taxes, etc. The success of this strategy could be due to arbitrage opportunities, but it could also be explained by PI's beliefs converging towards the 538 forecast. See also [this twitter thread]( by one of t...