State of the climate: 2020 on course to be warmest year on record
Concrete probability estimates from different sources:
I would be extremely interested in a series of questions along the lines of "Will charter cities/ZEDEs work?"
This is a minor thing, but anyway: why can't we use Markdown ~~strikethrough~~ in comments? I think it would be useful for edits.
@WilliamKiely this also happens to be my top scoring question so far, but I would attribute most of it to the use of narrow peaks around integers. So, if I were to blame this outcome on a Metaculus feature, my top pick would be the lack of non-binary categorical questions.
538's median forecast as of two days ago had only three states with margins between first and second smaller than the vote share for all other candidates combined. These are (R-D margin / other candidates' share):
EDIT: West is not on the ballot in any of them.
— edited by 2e10e122
My main uncertainty is this: how likely is the average Republican Senator to think preventing Trump from running in 2024 is in their own interest?
@EvanHarper I like that! I'll write it up.
@Jgalt wow, I was not expecting this level of partisanship on a prediction. It really is a strange world out there.
Impossible Pork Made From Plants Outperforms Pork From Pigs in Hong Kong Debut
In a blind taste test of more than 200 consumers in Hong Kong, Impossible Pork Made From Plants was preferred 54% to 46% over ground pork from pigs
Nitpick: shouldn't it be "DALYs lost"?
Over the last 20 years, space tourists have paid 30M-55M USD to go to the ISS (in 2020 dollars). Since this is a short suborbital flight, I assume the price should be lower. On the other hand, buyers may put a prime on this being Blue Origin's first commercial flight and on sharing it with Bezos.
I downloaded the raw data from The Economist's forecast and ran
d = pd.read_csv('electoral_college_simulations.csv')
d[(d.natl_pop_vote > 1/2) & (d.dem_ev < 270)].shape[0] / d[d.dem_ev < 270].shape[0]
which gives a surprisingly high probability of 78%. I'm rounding it down to 75%.
When will the covid-19 lockdown be lifted in [each of these locations: Italy, Spain, France, San Francisco]?
GJOpen currently giving a 5% chance to "Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?"
The question and title suggest what is being asked is Dem + Rep when in fact (according to the resolution criteria) it is 100 - (Dem + Rep). I suggest changing the wording to something like "Share of the vote going to 3rd parties" to avoid confusion.
New paper claims the observation that motivated the hypothesis of a Planet Nine goes away after controlling for selection bias.