Concrete probability estimates from different sources:
This is a minor thing, but anyway: why can't we use Markdown
~~strikethrough~~ in comments? I think it would be useful for edits.
@WilliamKiely this also happens to be my top scoring question so far, but I would attribute most of it to the use of narrow peaks around integers. So, if I were to blame this outcome on a Metaculus feature, my top pick would be the lack of non-binary categorical questions.
538's median forecast as of two days ago had only three states with margins between first and second smaller than the vote share for all other candidates combined. These are (
R-D margin / other candidates' share):
EDIT: West is not on the ballot in any of them.
— edited by 2e10e122
My main uncertainty is this: how likely is the average Republican Senator to think preventing Trump from running in 2024 is in their own interest?
@EvanHarper I like that! I'll write it up.
@Jgalt wow, I was not expecting this level of partisanship on a prediction. It really is a strange world out there.
Over the last 20 years, space tourists have paid 30M-55M USD to go to the ISS (in 2020 dollars). Since this is a short suborbital flight, I assume the price should be lower. On the other hand, buyers may put a prime on this being Blue Origin's first commercial flight and on sharing it with Bezos.
I downloaded the raw data from The Economist's forecast and ran
d = pd.read_csv('electoral_college_simulations.csv') d[(d.natl_pop_vote > 1/2) & (d.dem_ev < 270)].shape / d[d.dem_ev < 270].shape
which gives a surprisingly high probability of 78%. I'm rounding it down to 75%.
When will the covid-19 lockdown be lifted in [each of these locations: Italy, Spain, France, San Francisco]?
GJOpen currently giving a 5% chance to "Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?"
New paper claims the observation that motivated the hypothesis of a Planet Nine goes away after controlling for selection bias.
I'd be interested in mapping how much attention and resources the ethics of in silico consciousness will attract in the near future. Some example questions:
I have revised my prediction substantially upwards after downloading 538's forecast and automatically tagging every candidate's gender. Some names are ambiguous so I have added more uncertainty to account for that. I may narrow it down later if I'm not too lazy to manually tag the ones that are left.