[Newsweek - Exclusive: Putin Treated for Cancer in April, U.S. Intelligence Report Says](https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357) >Vladimir Putin's health is a subject of intense conversation inside the Biden administration after the intelligence community produced its fourth comprehensive assessment at the end of May. The classified U.S. report says Putin seems to have re-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer, three U.S. intelligence leaders who have read the reports te...
https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/06/minerva-solving-quantitative-reasoning.html “In “[Solving Quantitative Reasoning Problems With Language Models](https://storage.googleapis.com/minerva-paper/minerva_paper.pdf)”, we present Minerva, a language model capable of solving mathematical and scientific questions using step-by-step reasoning. We show that by focusing on collecting training data that is relevant for quantitative reasoning problems, training models at scale, and employing best-in-class inference techniques, we achieve significant performance gains...
DRC alone had 6257 cases of MPX in 2020 (http://outbreaknewstoday.com/drc-report-1000-more-monkeypox-cases-in-2020-deaths-double-98346/). If we assume that all metaculus forecasters understand that this question is about MPX cases including in endemic countries, then 24% of the community apparently predicts a *decrease* in total number of worldwide cases relative to *just* DRC *2020* cases, despite the fact that DRC cases have been on an increasing trend and that we also have a major outbreak in non-endemic countries. The alternative explanation is that...

I guess resolution of this is mainly based on guessing what sources the admins will close it with. If one relies on Ukrainian numbers that include estimates, likely the value could rise to 100k by end of year. If one uses anything else, then probably not. So will the admins use Ukrainian estimated numbers and include civilians? Who can say? Wish I didn't forecast on this question with unclear resolution criterion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_in…

Not sure why, but scoring on these questions affects your overall ranking far more than any another questions. My predictions were similar to the consensus all the way through May (slightly off) and ultimately were wrong for most of the month. But I was so wrong that I scored -1.119! When you're only scoring 0.01 or if you're lucky, 0.1 on other questions, being wrong on these questions really upsets the balance. Part rant and part reminder that we should probably be predicting with much larger margins of error on these questions all the way up until th...
Twitter user alewkowycz, a research scientist at Google: [Very excited to present Minerva🦉: a language model capable of solving mathematical questions using step-by-step natural language reasoning. Combining scale, data and others dramatically improves performance on the STEM benchmarks MATH and MMLU-STEM](https://twitter.com/alewkowycz/status/1542559176483823622) Google AI Blog: [Minerva: Solving Quantitative Reasoning Problems with Language Models](https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/06/minerva-solving-quantitative-reasoning.html) >... >Evaluation on S...

1, 2, and 4 already seem almost there. I've already seem demos or played with github code to do so, so putting aside calling it AGI, it seems pretty likely.

It might be good to include a minimum amount of training flops as well in a question like this. I expect the first 100T parameter model to be severely under-trained for its size.

https://www.deepmind.com/publications/perceiver-ar-general-purpose-long-context-autoregressive-generation "Real-world data is high-dimensional: a book, image, or musical performance can easily contain hundreds of thousands of elements even after compression. However, the most commonly used autoregressive models, Transformers, are prohibitively expensive to scale to the number of inputs and layers needed to capture this long-range structure. We develop Perceiver AR, an autoregressive, modality-agnostic architecture which uses cross-attention to map long-...

In general I think people here massively overestimate how long it'll take to go from "weakly general" to "general" (I'm referring to this question and its more popular weaker variant.)

@tryingToPredictFuture

The Q&A meeting is cancelled simply because Russian people are tired of it. Since 2015, its rating drops:

  • 2015 - 12.2%
  • 2016 - 10.3%
  • 2017 - 8.9%
  • 2018 - 8.3%
  • 2019 - 7.6%

In 2020, it was cancelled. In 2021, its rating was not published, probably because it was low. In 2022, it was cancelled again.

— edited by blednotik

From [Minerva](https://storage.googleapis.com/minerva-paper/minerva_paper.pdf): > National Math Exam in Poland [...] is taken by approximately 270K high-school students every year. > We evaluated Minerva 62B on the National Math Exam in Poland and found that it achieves a score of 57%, which happened to be the national average in 2021. The 540B model achieves 65%." They also report 50.3% on MATH dataset, whereas in the [MATH paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03874) the authors said "We also evaluated humans on MATH, and found that a computer science P...

Tom Inglesby, Director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, argues today in a Twitter thread that monkeypox meets the definition of a PHEIC. The relevant WHO Emergency Committee meets tomorrow to decide whether to declare a PHEIC.

@(james_) as the moderator who approved this question I'd like to state that I didn't anticipate the possibility of both of them being awarded money. That said, I do think using the net amount is reasonable. Question authors and moderators are far from experts on the questions here, and there's a tradeoff between covering a lot of interesting questions and covering only a few questions extremely accurately. This may result in underspecified questions at times, and in the interest of having a functioning site in my opinion it's useful to allow for some am...

@QI92756340QI If we're talking about the swastika-waving nutters, there was a town in North Dakota with a population of a couple dozen that some white nationalists attempted to move to and take over, but that failed miserably due to these people being unable to conduct themselves with any sort of proper behavior. (Google Leith, ND, if you want to read all about it.)

And that's just one small town, let alone entire parts of the US. My money would be on it not happening anywhere for the foreseeable future.

WHO: [The IHR Emergency Committee for multi-country #monkeypox outbreak advised the WHO DG that the event, currently, does not constitute a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). @DrTedros accepted the Committee’s advice.](https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1540800805816524800) [The IHR Emergency Committee unanimously acknowledged the emergency nature of the event & that controlling the further spread of #monkeypox outbreak requires intense response efforts.](https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1540801480982024192) Press release: [Meeting o...
I don't think this is happening: - With a recession incoming, Tesla's shares are worth less, so it costs more to Musk to sell them/use financial wizardry to pawn them - The price of Twitter has fallen down - The price of Twitter is still propped up by his offer to buy it, so it'd be lower than what it is now So my sense is that Musk: - Is contractually obligated to actually pay up - Is now ok with paying the breakup fee - Would want to negotiate for a lower price - Is purposefully being an asshole Conversely, the Twitter board/director: - Don't lik...
[Results](https://investors.modernatx.com/news/news-details/2022/Moderna-Announces-Omicron-Containing-Bivalent-Booster-Candidate-mRNA-1273.214-Demonstrates-Superior-Antibody-Response-Against-Omicron/default.aspx) on a booster candidate tailored against Omicron: Moderna's bivalent booster dose (targets both Omicron and WT) increased neutralizing antibody levels against Omicron by 8x above baseline levels, which is 1.75x more than the WT booster did. Moderna says this bivalent vaccine is their "lead candidate for a Fall 2022 booster" Note that as per t...