80% kinda high
I guess resolution of this is mainly based on guessing what sources the admins will close it with. If one relies on Ukrainian numbers that include estimates, likely the value could rise to 100k by end of year. If one uses anything else, then probably not. So will the admins use Ukrainian estimated numbers and include civilians? Who can say? Wish I didn't forecast on this question with unclear resolution criterion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_in…
1, 2, and 4 already seem almost there. I've already seem demos or played with github code to do so, so putting aside calling it AGI, it seems pretty likely.
It might be good to include a minimum amount of training flops as well in a question like this. I expect the first 100T parameter model to be severely under-trained for its size.
In general I think people here massively overestimate how long it'll take to go from "weakly general" to "general" (I'm referring to this question and its more popular weaker variant.)
The Q&A meeting is cancelled simply because Russian people are tired of it. Since 2015, its rating drops:
In 2020, it was cancelled. In 2021, its rating was not published, probably because it was low. In 2022, it was cancelled again.
— edited by blednotik
Tom Inglesby, Director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, argues today in a Twitter thread that monkeypox meets the definition of a PHEIC. The relevant WHO Emergency Committee meets tomorrow to decide whether to declare a PHEIC.
@QI92756340QI If we're talking about the swastika-waving nutters, there was a town in North Dakota with a population of a couple dozen that some white nationalists attempted to move to and take over, but that failed miserably due to these people being unable to conduct themselves with any sort of proper behavior. (Google Leith, ND, if you want to read all about it.)
And that's just one small town, let alone entire parts of the US. My money would be on it not happening anywhere for the foreseeable future.