Just want to say that I moved from Kyiv to Lviv on Feb 13 /entirely/ thanks to this prediction thread and the Metaculus estimates. (Still in Lviv but leaving Ukraine later today.)
It’s hard to estimate the impact, but at the very least I have saved myself an enormous hassle trying to move all my possessions, finding an apartment in Lviv, etc on very short notice — which would have happened otherwise. Of course, worse outcomes were possible too if things had played out a bit differently.
Thank you, everyone.
— edited by availablegreen
As a consequence I will ban you for a week. Please change your behaviour when you are back.
As of right now, today is the first day since GJI launched their question on Jan 28 that the superforecasters are above the Metaculus community when you aggregate their options, 80% vs 75%:
@mumpskin But the US IC often makes bad predictions, such as, e.g. the prediction that the Afghani government would be able to keep control over Kabul for some time after US troops left.
I strongly urge people to start thinking about and writing new forecasting questions about the potential escalation of this conflict and its impact in the near and long term. What scenarios should we be watching for? What are the potential tail risks? What information would be the most useful for those working on de-escalation?
The collective insight of forecasters is needed right now. @moderators will be prioritizing relevant question submissions.
Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.
Unfortunately, I was really wrong and am now going to make a PCR test and find a plane ticket to somewhere outside Russia. Fortunately, I also have Israeli citizenship, so I have somewhat more options
— edited by mishasamin
@kievalet I mean, they both predicted that there was a 40% chance of Russia invading Ukraine. 40% isn't 0%.
@availablegreen If you, or sb u know, need a place to stay, let me know. Together with flatmates, we offer our space. We're 3 math students living in Poland. Take care!