Metaculus is currently at 54% median prediction, and, well, I’d be happy to find anyone I know to bet 1:1 that Russia won’t invade Ukraine. Yes, the Russian troops are being moved, a lot of troops. CIT regularly reports more info on the troops movement towards the border region (https://citeam.org/russian-exercise-or-not-a-exercise.html?2). But no, I don’t believe Russia is going to invade Ukraine. They have no actual interest in it, they’ve got a lot of internal problems, the surveys show the invasion won’t improve their ratings that continue to decl...

@Glossy As I understand it, you are saying that the troop build-up is a response to Washington's "shouting", but isn't it the other way round? Isn't everybody talking of the possibility of a Russian invasion because of the build-up?

@RedBox It would not make much difference, because Ukrainian non-professional reserve army is, putting it mildly, is not very good, in terms of equipment and training (sadly, I'm a reserve officer, and the training that I got is completely inadequate)

I think 1-2 is much less likely than 0 or 3+ because nobody is planning a manned deep space mission with fewer than 3 crew as far as I know

Anyone interested in the same question but for petaflop-days instead of paramater count?

Just flagging that the process of resignation does take a few months: - Theresa May got a vote of no confidence [22 April 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiership_of_Theresa_May#Announcement_of_resignation) (non-binding) - Theresa May [announced her resignation on 24 May 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiership_of_Theresa_May#Announcement_of_resignation) - She [remained PM until 23 July 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiership_of_Theresa_May). Suggest Boris would probably need to resign before 1 April for this to resolve negativ...

European Journal of Human Genetics: [The use of polygenic risk scores in pre-implantation genetic testing: an unproven, unethical practice](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41431-021-01000-x) > When PRS assessments are provided as direct-to-consumer tests, their evaluation of a patient’s risk may be dangerously incomplete and can lead to grave misunderstandings. Extrapolating the results from predictive assessments in adult cohorts to use them as a factor for embryo screening would be improper. No clinical research protocol has been performed so far to ...

For those unaware, there have been major developments in December. Most important thing, the main right party, "Les Républicains" (which was UMP or RPR before) had their primary and chose Valérie Pécresse to represent them. The runner-up, Eric Ciotti is of the radical part of the party and may attract some far right votes because he will have an important place if Pécresse wins. To me, she is the biggest threat to Macron if she accesses the second turn : her party has been for a very long time the main french party (5 of the 8 french presidents came fr...

Institute for Study of War analysis for what an invasion would look like. Russia would try to take the East up to the Dnipro river and Odessa.

https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/defaul…

In the words of Daffy Duck, “Ho ho. Very funny. Ha ha. It is to laugh.”

— edited by Rexracer63

As someone who's following this only loosely, the only certain thing about this situation seems to be its massive uncertainty. My updates for the past two weeks have basically consisted of going from 49% to 51% and back again.

@Rexracer63 "never wrestle with a pig. you get dirty, and the pig likes it" -- abraham lincoln

@Tamay The question specifies a particular resolution method:

This question resolves as the median of median estimates of the top three papers published before the end of 2021 by citation count, on Google scholar on December 30th, 2021.*

@(SimonM) Compare the IPCC system: | | | |----|----| | 99% | Virtually certain | | 90% | Very likely | | 66% | Likely | | 33 to 66% | About as likely as not | | 33% | Unlikely | | 10% | Very unlikely | | 1% | Exceptionally unlikely | and the Sherman Kent system: | | | |----|----| | 100% | Certain | 93% | Almost certain | 75% | Probable | 50% | Chances about even | 30% | Probably not | 7% | Almost certainly not | 0% | Impossible If I were designing one of my own for Metaculus, I'd perhaps try: | Point | Description | Range | |----|----|-...

My prediction is now 80%. Between the massive buildup of forces on the border, today's announcement of Russian military arriving for "drills" in southern Belarus, the list of demands designed to fail, and last night's news that Russia has been quietly evacuating its embassies and consulates in Ukraine, it is now abundantly clear that we are right on the brink. Does this mean that Russia will do it? I don't know. But do I think that 4/5 of similar buildups have resulted in war? Yeah, probably. This may still be a bluff/leverage but at this point I think ...

*Disclaimer: I have no expertise in a subject matter and I have no idea whether the following provides complete picture:* ## Base rates [FDA guidance](https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-3-clinical-research) Phase 2: Approximately 33% of drugs move to the next phase [Clinical success rates:](https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/11/clinical-trial-success-rates-phase-and-therapeutic-area-14845) Oncology P2 to P3: 32.7% ## Studies [BNT113](https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04534205) Estimated Primary Completion Date : May ...

Russia is in the process of reducing embassy staff in Ukraine: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/17/us/politic….

I'm up to 80% now. That the community is still at 45% is quite surprising. What's going on here? Lots of initial interest in the question with little follow up over the past ~2 weeks?

— edited by jmason

___My Prediction: 78.4 (25%) - 78.8 (median) - 79.2 (75%) ___ This prediction is influenced by the forecast of 78.81712806 for January 21st and 95% confidence interval of 78.58598411 - 79.04827202 produced by the model outline below. I __don't trust__ my models much, because I am still learning about time series. _Prelude_ - I am learning more about time series modeling, and wanted to try using it for this question. Most of my time has been spent playing around with and testing code, rather than exploring original source papers or covering it theoret...

Badges for top-10/20/50 predictors so that their comments stand out, and receive recognition for topping the leaderboards :)

@johnnycaffeine The war in Donbas, which Russia intervened in, started two weeks after that timestamp.