US State Department just issued a Do Not Travel warning for Ukraine in response to potential Russian military action. Apparently when this was done for Azerbaijan in 2020, the war with Armenia broke out two days later.
@jmason It would be helpful to know how often the Do Not Travel warning is followed by a lack of invasion. I wouldn't be surprised if it's "90%+ of the time." This would be a more useful piece of evidence than the anecdote about Azerbaijan.
@jack @alwaysrinse I read the emails bectween @alwaysrinse and Scott, and Scott confirmed that he intentionally put the text "Astral Codex Ten mentions this Question" in his latest ACX post. This convinces me that he did in fact, even if very sneakily, refer to this question in the post. I've resolved it postively.
@Glossy This line of reasoning would be a lot more convincing if Russia hadn't already deployed troops and resources in a way that independent analysts believe would allow them to conduct a land invasion. The Iraq/WMD analogy makes little sense here.
With community odds now at 38%, I think I may go ahead and create a question about whether Russian troops enter Kiev by the end of the year. If we think the invasion has a significant chance of happening, a question like that would be important it would be useful to then see what kind of incursion it would be.
@RedBox Brier scores are for nerds, let's go
First (known to me) preprint, that gives an estimate for mortality, arriving at a significant reduction of deaths for Omicron: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.…
@pasha1237654 Oh come on. Even Russia does not deny that they are building up their forces near the Ukrainian border. They just insist they're not going to attack, while threatening to enforce their demands with unspecified "military-technical measures".
You can make of that what you will in terms of predictions (diversity of opinion is important for making these markets function!), and of course have your own opinion about whether it's justified or not. But insisting that it's not happening is just denying reality.
@GoldbergMachinations The fine print on this question says, “If the question title or text is present but obscured (such as being incorrectly transcribed), this is sufficient to resolve positively.”
Thus, it does not matter that the “q” was lowercase.
— edited by Matthew_Barnett