Fridman: "When do you think SpaceX will land a human being on Mars?"
Musk: "Hm." (thinks ~20s) "Best case is about five years, worst case ten years."
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To whoever is out there at 73%, I admire the confidence and sincerely hope you get to prove us all wrong!
Given Dobbs counts, worth noting FantasySCOTUS is currently forecasting a 6-3 reversal (ie this question resolving positive)
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Even if they could produce cultured meat at a cost effective scale, which nobody can right now, and had a market just as large as plant based meats are now (which would require unprecedented growth by 2023), it still wouldn't be in their interests to make a profit in such an early stage as they would spend to prioritise expansion.
Will there be more global COVID-19 deaths in 2022 than there were in 2021?
Updated in favor in part because of this thread: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/14733…
Francois Balloux on Twitter:
I would have voted for a ~60% 'intrinsic' reduction of the risk of death for infections caused by the Omicron variant relative to Delta (i.e. averaged over age and immune status), but ~90% doesn't strike me as implausible at this stage.
@JonathanRay That would be an interesting question if it were written, but this question is also interesting and nothing is stopping them coexisting.
Will the US CDC change the definition of being “fully vaccinated” against COVID-19 to include an additional dose(s)?
In general, people are considered fully vaccinated:
2 weeks after their second dose in a 2-dose series, such as the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, or
2 weeks after a single-dose vaccine, such as Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen vaccine
Related question with resolution date in end of 2023 is currently at 21%.
There's a great deal of dispute about what exactly constitutes "gain of function" research. I think it's unlikely to be fully banned under that name, but it's possible there might be bans or restrictions on some activities classifiable as GoF research.
@kievalet The 1938 and 1939 winners went on to disappoint a lot of people