Fridman: "When do you think SpaceX will land a human being on Mars?"

Musk: "Hm." (thinks ~20s) "Best case is about five years, worst case ten years."

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To whoever is out there at 73%, I admire the confidence and sincerely hope you get to prove us all wrong!

New to the community, but the resolution criteria as I understand them are not favorable to the question resolving positively. Mixed results in studies do not count: i.e. if only one group e.g. vaccinated people have a lower mortality but unvaccinated do not, the study does not count towards the 3 necessary studies. If one study reports significant reductions in hospitalizations, but only insignificant reductions in deaths because of a low sample size, it does not count either. To me it is also plausible, that earlier published studies (which is what t...

Given Dobbs counts, worth noting FantasySCOTUS is currently forecasting a 6-3 reversal (ie this question resolving positive)

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Even if they could produce cultured meat at a cost effective scale, which nobody can right now, and had a market just as large as plant based meats are now (which would require unprecedented growth by 2023), it still wouldn't be in their interests to make a profit in such an early stage as they would spend to prioritise expansion.

Will there be more global COVID-19 deaths in 2022 than there were in 2021?

The Dec 22 WTI futures price is currently $66. This contract trades multiple billion dollars per day. I don't see any reason to disagree with this price.

Options imply 25th and 75th percentiles of $38 and $82.

Francois Balloux on Twitter:

I would have voted for a ~60% 'intrinsic' reduction of the risk of death for infections caused by the Omicron variant relative to Delta (i.e. averaged over age and immune status), but ~90% doesn't strike me as implausible at this stage.

@JonathanRay That would be an interesting question if it were written, but this question is also interesting and nothing is stopping them coexisting.

Will the US CDC change the definition of being “fully vaccinated” against COVID-19 to include an additional dose(s)?

The current definition is:

In general, people are considered fully vaccinated:

2 weeks after their second dose in a 2-dose series, such as the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, or

2 weeks after a single-dose vaccine, such as Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen vaccine

@(adambear91) Here's the relevant slide from the Discovery SA presentation: I notice that a) the same data shows delta having a *lower* hospitalisation rate than the original variant and b) they can only correct for *documented* prior-infection status. We know from [elsewhere]( that delta roughly doubles the chances of hospitalisation compared to the original variant, but this analysis doesn't show this. This makes me wonder if the fact that they cannot co...
@(casens) this is a significant improvement, but the title question still does not match the resolution criteria. In particular, they can rule that the MS law does not pose an undue burden under Roe and Casey, which would not overturn Roe from a legal perspective (it would not not be "formally overturned"), but the question would still resolve positively. If the Court does that in this case, people are going to want another question for whether at a later date they overturn Roe. The title question should be about abortion before fetal viability if that's...

There's a great deal of dispute about what exactly constitutes "gain of function" research. I think it's unlikely to be fully banned under that name, but it's possible there might be bans or restrictions on some activities classifiable as GoF research.

Seems like this resolves positive: [WebGPT]( > Previous work on question-answering such as REALM [Guu et al., 2020] and RAG [Lewis et al., 2020a] has focused on improving document retrieval for a given query. Instead, we use a familiar existing method for this: a modern search engine (Bing). This has two main advantages. First, modern search engines are already very powerful, and index a large number of up-to-date documents. Second, it allows us to focus on the higher-level task of using a search engin...
Multiple other experts confirming the Alperovitch position: "I have to say this is where my analysis leads me as well." - [Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist, RAND Corporation]( "The expansion of the Russian presence at the border has nothing to do with exercises for the transfer and maintenance of troops. It can be assumed with a high degree of probability that the general decision to attack Ukraine has been made." - [Konrad Muzyka, Independent Defence Analyst focusing on Russia and Belarus...

@kievalet The 1938 and 1939 winners went on to disappoint a lot of people Prior: 0.6/430000000. probability that Ghislaine has a reddit account / total reddit users. Evidence: Maxwell surname: *40000 Family estate in a place with "hill" in the name: *50 Birthday after Dec 21: *365/9 High-IQ power user: *50 Made no posts for 3 days around the time of Ghislaine's mother's death and around the time of the Kleiner Perkins party: *10 "Their coverage noted that Maxwellhill “uses a mix of British and US spelling as wel...