Just want to say that I moved from Kyiv to Lviv on Feb 13 /entirely/ thanks to this prediction thread and the Metaculus estimates. (Still in Lviv but leaving Ukraine later today.)
It’s hard to estimate the impact, but at the very least I have saved myself an enormous hassle trying to move all my possessions, finding an apartment in Lviv, etc on very short notice — which would have happened otherwise. Of course, worse outcomes were possible too if things had played out a bit differently.
Thank you, everyone.
— edited by availablegreen
@casens To see this in my inbox:
"Metaculus Notifications <notifications\@mg2.metaculus.com>
Resolved: Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?
Was probably the scariest moment of the whole year to me.
Came here to note this paper also. For the record, when I wrote the question this is the sort of system I had in mind to resolve it. I doubt this actual system resolves it, but a future version of this system that did perform well enough would satisfy the "unified system" criterion.
@GameTheory both your comments are in violation of our Etiquette rules 1 through 7 and our Moderation rule 3. I believe that's a record. To be explicit, your comments are:
As a consequence I will ban you for a week. Please change your behaviour when you are back.
my apologies for the mistaken resolution notification. no points have been awarded, predicting will continue.
As of right now, today is the first day since GJI launched their question on Jan 28 that the superforecasters are above the Metaculus community when you aggregate their options, 80% vs 75%:
@predictors I again apologize for the mistaken resolution email sent today. The fault is my own; and essentially comes down to me having more than one tab open and not seeing which question I was resolving, until it was too late. I know tensions are quite high, and this error caused significant distress. The Metaculus team will be working on safeguards to prevent this kind of error in the future.
Emails are (in a small way) a bit like bombs -- they can't be un-delivered.
Moscow Bureau Chief for the FT on Twitter:
Putin speaking now: he says Russia has recognized the separatist's claim to the whole Donbas. This is as close as you can get to declaring war.
For context, Ukraine controls ~70% of that territory.
— edited by ClayGraubard
@liljaycup Hodges seems pretty unimpressive to me - at the end of that interview he says he signed onto a letter calling for a no-fly-zone because “we have to do something”, which doesn’t inspire confidence in his reasoning. His comments about the huge Russian convoy were also contradicted by Michael Kofman in yesterday’s War on the Rocks podcast. Wouldn’t be that surprised if he’s just become a lazy talking head since leaving the military.
— edited by occamsbulldog
I went 18% -> 14%. The bombings and the Russian watniks' reactions indicate there is no need for Putin to use nukes. A large-scale conventional bombing is sufficient to please the hawks, even after major humiliations like the Crimea bridge explosion.
@mumpskin But the US IC often makes bad predictions, such as, e.g. the prediction that the Afghani government would be able to keep control over Kabul for some time after US troops left.
@QI92756340QI This is about whether he’s PM at a particular point in time; he doesn’t have to remain PM until January 1. While very unlikely, it is possible he could make a comeback.