@SimonM I… just… imagine what you could do with $28 million, and now imagine instead being in space for 10 minutes. I often do not understand humans.
Based on the 2020 post-mortem it looks like a lot of thought was put into selecting the right launch code users, and the author promises to put even more care into it next time. Additionally, the trick that fooled the button-presser on 2020 is going to be known to more people now - and hopefully most of the people chosen this year.
@StevenSchkolne oh, I thought you meant just Metaculus staff on Metaculus-Itself questions.
For other kinds of insider info, I think it's fine? They'll move the median in the right direction, and the scoring rule is in large part positive sum, so they won't hurt other's scores much. I admit I haven't spent a huge amount of time thinking about it.
In general, the comment section is surprisingly collaborative, with people sharing info they could have kept to themselves to outperform others. It's great.
It might be interesting to see a similar question for Stone Mountain.
Over the last 20 years, space tourists have paid 30M-55M USD to go to the ISS (in 2020 dollars). Since this is a short suborbital flight, I assume the price should be lower. On the other hand, buyers may put a prime on this being Blue Origin's first commercial flight and on sharing it with Bezos.
@SimonM Since the BLS rounds to one decimal place I've been putting spikes on the decimal place I think are most likely and a regular distribution to cover the rest. My guess is the users the Metaculus prediction assigns the most weight to are doing the same.
Five months into Biden's term of office, Trump continues to exceed him in rate of Google search queries. A question about whether he'll still lead Biden at the end of the year?
@johnnycaffeine Usages of words often (usually?) diverge from their etymologies, “human-made” reads completely naturally and was really unremarkable before you drew attention to it, and there is no need for this rationality-signaling.
Can someone explain why the median forecast is this high? I don't have any particularly strong feelings on the matter but 30 per cent does seem quite high as an outcome.
Per Blue Origin's website, the highest bid is now $4M—already increased from yesterday's $3.8M.
That's some next level forecasting. Perhaps we should start using the unrounded numbers?
@JonathanShi if you look at the top line options under "evaluated at: [select]", you can select [other time...], where all values can be displayed for 10 days before close, or 50% of the question's open period, etc.
I really like the update from the brief look at it so far. One suggestion would be when I'm viewing the questions on mobile each question takes up a lot of real-estate on the screen, which looks nice, but I think having a button to switch between large and small question blocks would be nice so I can see more question titles on the screen without having to scroll so much.