For me the only problem with UX with the current design on mobile are the sliders. Especially on open questions. It's super cumbersome and fiddly to make precise predictions. But from what I can see it didn't change at all. I also want to mention that like the current design, the night version, for it's unique, edgy and old school character. The new design is okeish, but it is bland. The main positive I see in the new design is being able to see the current community prediction distribution on the list of the question. I also like that there is a label...

@SimonM I… just… imagine what you could do with $28 million, and now imagine instead being in space for 10 minutes. I often do not understand humans.

Based on the 2020 post-mortem it looks like a lot of thought was put into selecting the right launch code users, and the author promises to put even more care into it next time. Additionally, the trick that fooled the button-presser on 2020 is going to be known to more people now - and hopefully most of the people chosen this year.

@StevenSchkolne oh, I thought you meant just Metaculus staff on Metaculus-Itself questions.

For other kinds of insider info, I think it's fine? They'll move the median in the right direction, and the scoring rule is in large part positive sum, so they won't hurt other's scores much. I admit I haven't spent a huge amount of time thinking about it.

In general, the comment section is surprisingly collaborative, with people sharing info they could have kept to themselves to outperform others. It's great.

Updated slightly up on

Edit: updated up to 67% based on this forecast realizing that the question is based on number of gold medals.

Edit 2: updated up to 70% based on…

— edited by elifland_ought

Over the last 20 years, space tourists have paid 30M-55M USD to go to the ISS (in 2020 dollars). Since this is a short suborbital flight, I assume the price should be lower. On the other hand, buyers may put a prime on this being Blue Origin's first commercial flight and on sharing it with Bezos.

@SimonM Since the BLS rounds to one decimal place I've been putting spikes on the decimal place I think are most likely and a regular distribution to cover the rest. My guess is the users the Metaculus prediction assigns the most weight to are doing the same.

@MaciekK @Sylvain you can also edit the FRED graph in their menu to change the units so that it automatically provides the percent change instead of just the index.

— edited by RyanBeck

Five months into Biden's term of office, Trump continues to exceed him in rate of Google search queries. A question about whether he'll still lead Biden at the end of the year?

@johnnycaffeine Usages of words often (usually?) diverge from their etymologies, “human-made” reads completely naturally and was really unremarkable before you drew attention to it, and there is no need for this rationality-signaling.

Can someone explain why the median forecast is this high? I don't have any particularly strong feelings on the matter but 30 per cent does seem quite high as an outcome.

Per Blue Origin's website, the highest bid is now $4M—already increased from yesterday's $3.8M.


That's some next level forecasting. Perhaps we should start using the unrounded numbers?

Synthetic resolution does not count? Optical pixel resolution the resolution you get from optics and the sensor for single image in defined altitude. Synthetic resolution can be much better by combing multiple images, wavelengths, sampling and interpolation. Optical resolution has physical limits that have been reached. Diffraction limit is 5-6 cm for any reasonable sized telescope. turbulence makes real resolution worse, 10 cm or so. If this is question only about optical resolution, that is probably the correct answer. Synthetic aperture optical ...
I'd consider using a primary source. Our World in Data is a website that may or may not exist in 25 years. If it does exist, it could change its source and thus its definition. Right now it says the source is "Own calculations by Max Roser based on Polity IV data, and data from Wimmer and Min (2006),, UN Population Division (2015 Rev), and Our World In Data." Sounds likethe [polity project]( is the underlying data. The convenience of course is that Our World in Data at least currently does th...

@JonathanShi if you look at the top line options under "evaluated at: [select]", you can select [other time...], where all values can be displayed for 10 days before close, or 50% of the question's open period, etc.

[WORLD EXCLUSIVE: Footage proves bats were kept in Wuhan lab](, > The Wuhan Institute of Virology kept live bats in cages, new footage from inside the facility has revealed, disproving denials from World Health Organisation investigators who claimed the suggestion was a “conspiracy”. > An official Chinese Academy of Sciences video to mark the launch of the new biosafety level 4 laboratory in May 2017 speaks about the security precautions that are in place if “an accident” occurs and reveals there had be...

I really like the update from the brief look at it so far. One suggestion would be when I'm viewing the questions on mobile each question takes up a lot of real-estate on the screen, which looks nice, but I think having a button to switch between large and small question blocks would be nice so I can see more question titles on the screen without having to scroll so much.