In this list of 90 state lawmakers accused of sexual misconduct since the start of 2017 compiled by Associated Press, 33 of the lawmakers involved have had to leave office after the allegations against them had surfaced. That gives a naive base rate of 1 - 33/90 = 63% that Cuomo survives the scandal without being forced to leave office in some manner.
— edited by ege_erdil
@kalos Yeah, it's a shame this question tried to use experimental resolution, because the actual topic turned out to be (i) fairly interesting, (ii) fairly uncertain, and (iii) without a lot of good existing sources that clearly resolve it one way or another, all of which make a good community prediction more valuable that it would otherwise be.
— edited by j.m.
Percentage of full time remote workers in the US in 2023?
Hello Metaculus community! I just finished a second episode of my docuseries that originally raised this BEAR test question.
In this installment I feature this discussion thread (and some of you - especially @devetec!). Check it out if you have a second:
Note: This question resolves based on closing values. Brent didn't close >=$70 in the last couple of days, and we're back to $67.17. It's still very likely to break $70 this year, but 99% is pretty overconfident in my view.
@kievalet I just wish I had the same level of conviction in my beliefs as you have in yours.
@oriscratch in the fine-print:
While this question is intended as an operationalization of "herd immunity", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.
it seems to me that the most fair way to interpret the question is to resolve on 230M infected or vaccinated against vanilla COVID-19, even if vaccines give no immunity to some highly deadly COVID-21.
@Sylvain Big fan of the voting method used.
I've recently talked to several people with significant domain knowledge/experience in biosecurity who gave much higher probabilities than the community average (as far as I can tell, this is their own assessments of the public situation and not based on private information).
I am unable to disclose their identities.
So your resolution to the question will not based on evidence or authoritative reporting, but rather on a majority opinion of the Metaculus community, or this 3 person board? This is ridiculous, and I don't mean in a funny kind of a way. Can I withdraw my prediction? I must have not read the question very carefully when I predicted "no".
@Linch Are you taking into account the difficulty of obtaining evidence? My hunch is that even if the virus leaked from the lab it will most likely never be convincingly shown or even discovered by investogators.