Suggestion for a new question category: Space Exploration.

In this list of 90 state lawmakers accused of sexual misconduct since the start of 2017 compiled by Associated Press, 33 of the lawmakers involved have had to leave office after the allegations against them had surfaced. That gives a naive base rate of 1 - 33/90 = 63% that Cuomo survives the scandal without being forced to leave office in some manner.

— edited by ege_erdil

@kalos Yeah, it's a shame this question tried to use experimental resolution, because the actual topic turned out to be (i) fairly interesting, (ii) fairly uncertain, and (iii) without a lot of good existing sources that clearly resolve it one way or another, all of which make a good community prediction more valuable that it would otherwise be.

— edited by j.m.

@(Jgalt) important to point out that irrespective of one's personal opinions, the behavior described in that NYT article falls under the New York State definition of sexual harassment, creating a hostile work environment, as described here: https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/sexual_harrassment_brochure.pdf ...and by the way, signed into law by Andrew Cuomo: [Governor Cuomo Signs Legislation Enacting Sweeping New Workplace Harassment Protections](https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-signs-legislation-enacting-sweeping-new-workplace-harassm...

Percentage of full time remote workers in the US in 2023?

Hello Metaculus community! I just finished a second episode of my docuseries that originally raised this BEAR test question.

In this installment I feature this discussion thread (and some of you - especially @devetec!). Check it out if you have a second:

http://www.caseyhudetz.com/i-want-my-son-back

[Reports that the Ever Given has been successfully refloated in the Suez Canal](https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/reports-that-the-ever-given-has-been-successfully-refloated-in-the-suez-canal-20210329) Bloomberg: [Giant Vessel Is Now Afloat, Inchcape Says: Suez Update](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-28/progress-made-in-moving-ship-more-vessels-diverted-suez-update?sref=frV97TwV) >Salvage teams freed the Ever Given in the Suez Canal, according to maritime services provider Inchcape, almost a week after the giant vessel ran aground in one...
Ark Invest has published forecasts of the Tesla Stock Price based their [model](https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target-2/?fbclid=IwAR2uu11856AqqMXx2rp33wg7b8uiEcHACBNeJhvpacT8iXpz4wDrQjN481I) with 34 inputs. The actually spredsheets are [here](https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model/blob/master/Tesla%202025%20Valuation%20Extract%20for%20Github_3.18.21.xlsx) I think this model could be improved by tying each of the inputs into a a metaculus question. Ark runs some of the hottest funds right now. Cr...

Note: This question resolves based on closing values. Brent didn't close >=$70 in the last couple of days, and we're back to $67.17. It's still very likely to break $70 this year, but 99% is pretty overconfident in my view.

Top question on this metric: * [Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/) 7.4 * [Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5383/) 6.6 * [Platform feature suggestions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/935/) 6.1 * [Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/) 5.8 * [Discussion topic: what are some suggestions for questions to launch?](https://www.metacu...

@kievalet I just wish I had the same level of conviction in my beliefs as you have in yours.

Eyeballing the [chart](http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=United%20States&show=25&y=both&scale=linear&data=deaths-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-12wk#countries), I initially estimated 10k. Then I looked at the results from the February COVID questions and the outcomes were better (lower cases and deaths) than the community expected (better than my final prediction expected as well). Then I read RyanBeck's prediction (which was more confident and lower than the community), and I made a more rigorous calculation b...

@oriscratch in the fine-print:

While this question is intended as an operationalization of "herd immunity", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.

it seems to me that the most fair way to interpret the question is to resolve on 230M infected or vaccinated against vanilla COVID-19, even if vaccines give no immunity to some highly deadly COVID-21.

I feel like the community p distribution would be about right if it was shifted to the right 10 years. The people who did the lambs were interested purely in tech for premature births, and seemed opposed to even the idea of developing it for the full gestation period, as well as pessimistic on feasibility. (Why do those 2 usually go hand-in-hand?) [Dolly the sheep](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolly_(sheep)) was cloned in 1996, and 25 years later we still don't have human clones. People are really paranoid about messing people up in novel ways, especia...

@Sylvain Big fan of the voting method used.

> Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045 Not sure where the claim is coming from, but [her own 2017 meta-analysis](https://academic.oup.com/view-large/figure/98596717/dmx022f02.tif) seems to be inconsistent with this. Average sperm counts in 2010 were slightly above 200M and declining at a rate of ~2.2M per year, so it would take at least until ~2100 to get to zero. Maybe she has reason to believe there are other factors in play that would accelerate the decline. I don't see any evidence of that in that meta-analysis or in [her ...

I've recently talked to several people with significant domain knowledge/experience in biosecurity who gave much higher probabilities than the community average (as far as I can tell, this is their own assessments of the public situation and not based on private information).

I am unable to disclose their identities.

So your resolution to the question will not based on evidence or authoritative reporting, but rather on a majority opinion of the Metaculus community, or this 3 person board? This is ridiculous, and I don't mean in a funny kind of a way. Can I withdraw my prediction? I must have not read the question very carefully when I predicted "no".

@Linch Are you taking into account the difficulty of obtaining evidence? My hunch is that even if the virus leaked from the lab it will most likely never be convincingly shown or even discovered by investogators.