There are huge disagreements between different forecasting platforms about whether the Olympics will happen or not. Surely, the questions are different in the ways meaningfully affecting their resolutions; but I still can't comprehend the contradictions. Here are the questions (along with the important bits of clarifications): - Good Judgement Open: Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? Postponement(s) alone would not count. - Polymarket: Will the Tokyo Summer Olympic...
# michal_dubrawski ("Michał" on discord) Candidacy Hi, it was suggested to me that our mods might need more help. As most of you know I am not a native English speaker, and my English is as it is. I also might currently not have much time each week to work as a mod, but as Sylvain said on the discord it would be better to "have many hands doing a little bit of work, than rely on too few overworked mods". If the community accepts me as a mod this time, I will do my best to provide help, even if this wouldn't be much each week. This time up to thre...

I understand that Metaculites may experience some unease over this question, since it seems very unlikely to resolve positively, even given my generous resolution criterion. However, I think it's an important question in order to keep journalists and public health policy analysts in check. These types of questions demonstrate how informed communities of amateur predictors can often outperform the experts.

— edited by Matthew_Barnett

# ThirdEyeOpen Candidacy I've been active on Metaculus since February 2020, and I've left nearly 200 comments on various questions. I'm particularly interested in helping ensure Metaculus questions are of a high quality, are unambiguous wherever possible, are easily understandable and legible even at a quick glance, and are consistent with other similar Metaculus questions whenever it's reasonable. If you look at my comment history, you will see that I've always strived to do this throughout my engagement with Metaculus, since this enables everybody to ...

Sorry for the double-resolution, it turns out 1.8 is not the same as 1817502.

@jipkin The website itself may not exists, but it will be almost certainly archived. I would love to know what question people in 1800 or 800 would make and what would be their predictions.

I've struggled to get my "prediction" in the right format, but I think this is about as close as I'm going to get. My prediction isn't as much "my" prediction as "what I think the market probabilities are" and my view is "the market is broadly sensible". I thought this question was going to be pretty sensitive to kurtosis, so rather than modelling it as a lognormal random walk, I fitted a [Heston model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heston_model) to the Deribit option prices. Having spent a bunch of time collecting the prices and fitting the model. My...

I would like to see a shorter-term version of this: "Will China annex Taiwan before 2025-01-01?"

(The next US presidential term will start 19 days after that, 2025-01-20)

@(casens) Apparently there is a number of countries that have achieved 5 year growth over five year period already (equivalent to resolution criteria). I don't know if all qualify as disaster or size exceptions. Timor TLS 1980 46.19 5.05 Iraq IRQ 1985 58.27 5.27 Iceland ISL 1850 50.96 5.63 Malawi MWI 2005 49.3 5.69 Namibia NAM 2005 53.98 5.89 Italy ITA 1945 58.8 5.91 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines VCT 1955 58.66 6.04 Rwanda RWA 2005 55.86 6.04 Finland FIN 1920 51.12 6.04 Iran IRN 1990 60.74 6.19 Zimbabwe ZWE...

Just want to note a key point, mentioned at GJOpen, is the torch relay. When the torch relay reaches its final destination, the Games officially begin. (PDF source)

The torch relay official schedule is at the following page and is scheduled to commence on March 25, from Fukushima prefecture: https://tokyo2020.org/en/torch/

@(galen) we can reformulate my three question types above as: 1. Questions are clustered with heavy overlap. 2. Questions are clustered with minimum overlap. 3. Questions are unclustered. The particular meaning I was gesturing at: for 2., not only do you want minimum overlap ("carving"), but you want the borders between questions to make sense ("at the joints"). Even more than that: we want them to make "semantic" sense (i.e. we care about it in the world), not just "syntactic" sense (i.e. the resolution criteria are simple). Success example: the [...

@michal_dubrawski I strongly endorse Michal's candidacy and think he'll be a fantastic addition to the mod team, which is why I, among others, encouraged him to apply.

In [an interview](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/andy-weber-rendering-bioweapons-obsolete/#chances-that-covid-19-escaped-from-a-research-facility-010155) to 80,000 Hours podcast, Andy Weber, who was the US Assistant Secretary of Defense responsible for biological and other weapons of mass destruction, said: > Andy Weber: Well, over time, evidence for natural spread hasn’t been produced, we haven’t found the intermediate species, you know, the pangolin that was talked about last year. I actually think that the odds that this was a laboratory-acq...

Looks like an attack just happened in Sweden: BREAKING: 8 people stabbed in suspected terror attack in Vetlanda, Sweden.

So this question was bookended by attacks, but no qualifying events took place during the period it actually covers.

There are tons of exchanges other than Kraken offering USDT/USD pairs. To wit Binance (via USDC and BUSD), Binance US (bank transfers), FTX (various stablecoins + Bank wires), Bittrex (bank transfers), Huobi (via HUSD), BitFinex (wires) and probably more. This is a pet peeve ever since the "Bit Short" post came out. It was full of mistakes and confusions like this. I still think Tether is an extremely dubious organization that probably doesn't have the money, at least not in USD in an accessible bank account. They ostensibly use Deltec Bank & Trust in t...

Rough estimates of annual revenues of most of the companies Open AI listed on the website (as of 17 March 2021):

  • $55M, Algolia,
  • $15M, Casetext,
  • <$1M, Replika,
  • $0.2M, Sapling,
  • $42M, AoPS,
  • $11M, ROSS.

The sum is less than $150M. Numbers come from times before GPT3.

There is also, for example, CopyAI. Nobody knows what its revenue will be, but the revenue of Grammarly (also a writing aid) is $73M.

Meta: I am posting this to save ur time for dull search, not as a research.

— edited by CaptchaSamurai

Well, it isn't going to fly again. It just exploded on the pad.

F for SN10.

In light of the 3 conditional minimum wage questions here, I thought quicker-resolving questions could come from the experimental laboratory of Florida, which is the lowest cost of living state to [raise its minimum wage to $15](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=84a53659-4e9c-4994-bae0-2bb2369180a2). Currently the schedule is: $8.65 per hour today $10.00 on September 30, 2021 $11.00 on September 30, 2022 $12.00 on September 30, 2023 $13.00 on September 30, 2024 $14.00 on September 30, 2025 $15.00 on September 30, 2026 The disastro...

Irish reunification?

Suggestion for a new question category: Space Exploration.