I understand that Metaculites may experience some unease over this question, since it seems very unlikely to resolve positively, even given my generous resolution criterion. However, I think it's an important question in order to keep journalists and public health policy analysts in check. These types of questions demonstrate how informed communities of amateur predictors can often outperform the experts.
— edited by Matthew_Barnett
Sorry for the double-resolution, it turns out 1.8 is not the same as 1817502.
@jipkin The website itself may not exists, but it will be almost certainly archived. I would love to know what question people in 1800 or 800 would make and what would be their predictions.
I would like to see a shorter-term version of this: "Will China annex Taiwan before 2025-01-01?"
(The next US presidential term will start 19 days after that, 2025-01-20)
Just want to note a key point, mentioned at GJOpen, is the torch relay. When the torch relay reaches its final destination, the Games officially begin. (PDF source)
The torch relay official schedule is at the following page and is scheduled to commence on March 25, from Fukushima prefecture: https://tokyo2020.org/en/torch/
@michal_dubrawski I strongly endorse Michal's candidacy and think he'll be a fantastic addition to the mod team, which is why I, among others, encouraged him to apply.
Looks like an attack just happened in Sweden: BREAKING: 8 people stabbed in suspected terror attack in Vetlanda, Sweden.
So this question was bookended by attacks, but no qualifying events took place during the period it actually covers.
Rough estimates of annual revenues of most of the companies Open AI listed on the website (as of 17 March 2021):
The sum is less than $150M. Numbers come from times before GPT3.
There is also, for example, CopyAI. Nobody knows what its revenue will be, but the revenue of Grammarly (also a writing aid) is $73M.
Meta: I am posting this to save ur time for dull search, not as a research.
— edited by CaptchaSamurai