Einstein field equations allows many weird solutions when you just play with them mathematically and ignore physics or invent your own. Think some weird geometry and then invent nonphysical matter or matter configuration that provides the solution. The only reason I can see why Alcubierre drive being so interesting compared to other solutions is the name "warp-time" and "drive". It invokes the sense that it's a mechanical device you can build and not just a mathematical exercise. If it was just called Alcubierre solution, It would not be any more int...

@an1lam I personally plan to live forever just so I can see my Metaculus predictions resolve.

@chrisjbillington

It's speculative, but I would not rule out that Musk may be more optimistic than 60%, even if publicly he says 60%. There is a bit of an incentive to give lower probability than actually expected, I think: if he says, say, 80% and fails, that would probably be seen as a bigger failure than 60%, whereas success will be seen as a lesser one.

Incentives are different with long-term predictions, I think.

I'd love to see a discussion going. So I'll start the bidding at 90%, for the following reasons: 1) The base rate. Of the 44 individuals who have preceded Biden as POTUS, 86% ran for reelection. 2) Actuarial tables. Biden has [plenty of life expectancy](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) remaining, and unlike the average 78 year-old American man, he has access to his own suite at Walter Reed, along with a dedicated team of doctors. 3) By all accounts, his managerial style is a delegator who sketches broad strokes and is content to sit back...
Hey @(Lorxus), @Jotto, @A_Guy, and @HadiKhan. We looked into the issue and we found that there was a bug that was causing the achievement not be awarded to more than one person per question. This is what explained it not being awarded in many instances were the achievement should have been awarded. Sorry about this, the bug has now been fixed. The way it’s supposed to work is by looking at the ratio of the final probability that you assigned to the outcome compared to the probability that the community assigns to the outcome. If that ratio is greater th...

@AngraMainyu I think the argument is roughly "Breyer is going to resign in 2021 or 2022 while the Democrats control the senate and the Presidency".

Recall campaign claims to have gathered 1,825,000 signatures as of this morning.

https://recallgavin2020.com/recallgavin2020-r…

Based on an 82.1% validity rate, that would be sufficient for the recall to happen.

— edited by cd

@admins this should resolve positively - Moderna press release saying they've manufactured clinical trial doses for a SA variant specific vaccine

@SimonM ugh, anthropic principle rears its ugly head once again...

The community estimate seems quite high to me: 1. Substack doesn't have any super high profile people on it. (At the level of a Trump) 2. Substack's authors tend to lean blue. 3. What value would Substack be bringing to the equation? 4. Who's advisor is going to suggest Substack as opposed to setting up their own blog. The only reason I can see for any of them doing it is that it's very to sign up. (Either that, or we transition into a world where Substack is *the* platform that everyone has to be on, but that I think would require a very different bus...

@Jgalt Whether it enables FTL travel or not would have a huge effect on the probability, so I think we should specify this. IMO, an Alcubierre drive that is slower than slight is not particularly interesting — the whole point is to allow FTL travel.

So I'd suggest we make the criterion "Alcubierre-like" and FTL.

Since 1991, Russia has had 3 presidents, average term 10 years. (Taking into account Soviet leaders does not change the figure very much; average term 11 years.) Since 1991, Russia has had much more prime ministers (I counted 11), average term 2.7 years. So, in general, having a chance at getting the PM seat seems at one point seems much easier than becoming a president. However, as other people point out, there very surely needs to be a regime change during Navalny's lifetime for these considerations to be relevant for him. (Navalny is 44 years old....

I don't understand 2300 as the resolution date. If in fact there is life on Mars, the overwhelming likelihood is that it would be found fairly quickly. To make 2300 as the resolution date seems really unfair to those who think the answer is no.

Therefore please consider making the question, "Will we find life on Mars by 2030?"

Are we excluding the pattern where every sentence is cherry-picked by a human editor? E.g. generate 100 candidates for sentence 1, select one, then generate 100 candidates for sentence 2, select one etc. In this case, no sentence needs to be edited by a human, just selected from among entirely AI-generated candidates. This is the most likely pattern an “AI-written” book would actually take IMO.

I'm noticing that there's more predictions on this question than on this related question asking when Starship will land properly. If you haven't had a chance to predict on that one yet, get your predictions in!

@Pablo I'm so happy to see this question again! And now in hue!

Given that Ultimate Gray was also in the New York / London overlap for 2021, but I missed the relevance of the 'core classics', I'll be predicting on the basis of the total overlap of Spring/Summer reports this year. Unfortunately, this approach means I won't be able to narrow my prediction until September. I don't view the Autumn/Winter trend reports (which were released a few weeks ago) as relevant to this forecast.

There's something fairly nasty about predicting maximums on Metaculus. The "correct" distribution is a mixture of discrete (probability we've already had the maximum) and continuous (probability the maximum is yet to come). (The distribution also tends to be very not-symmetric, which is always quite hard to predict using the Metaculus input).

@(kievalet) it's usually difficult to talk about overconfidence on single questions. I think that's because you have to say "relative to what model". I this case though, I think most reasonable models predicted this was very unlikely (<1%). But note the Metaculus UI does not let you predict below 1%*, so there's no way to tell whether the community was underconfident. The Metaculus prediction was at 0.5% (see Community Stats). <small>* this is to prevent predictors from losing astronomical numbers of points, since the scoring rule is logarithmic.</smal...