The Wuhan Coronavirus is looking like a pandemic event that could be serious enough to threaten this outcome.
@mumpskin But the US IC often makes bad predictions, such as, e.g. the prediction that the Afghani government would be able to keep control over Kabul for some time after US troops left.
Probably too late, but I’m not big fan of the down arrow for comments. A lack of positive likes sends a message just as much as down arrows without looking as negative.
— edited by Rexracer63
@QI92756340QI This is about whether he’s PM at a particular point in time; he doesn’t have to remain PM until January 1. While very unlikely, it is possible he could make a comeback.
I strongly urge people to start thinking about and writing new forecasting questions about the potential escalation of this conflict and its impact in the near and long term. What scenarios should we be watching for? What are the potential tail risks? What information would be the most useful for those working on de-escalation?
The collective insight of forecasters is needed right now. @moderators will be prioritizing relevant question submissions.
Anyone interested in an in-person Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?
I don't think you've really understood the 538 forecast. Or for that matter the 'shy trump voter' hypothesis, which seems very unlikely to exist given various analyses of different types of polling, but at least resembles a coherent thought.
Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.
Thank you for the warm welcome @Anthony! It’s been an honor to work with this amazing team for the last year, and I’m excited to take things to the next level and help accelerate Metaculus’s growth in the years ahead.
We have some exciting updates and opportunities on the horizon, with much more to come, and I’m confident that we have what it takes to keep growing the platform and strengthening our reputation and position as an innovation leader in the forecasting industry.
@Anthony I think this should just close ambiguously and a new question should be opened.
It seems plausible at this point that it'll never be settled, so maybe requiring unanimity isn't a great idea for a longer resolution date.
@Eharding I wouldn't update on this one way or the other. I think that
P(Lukashenko says this | Putin is healthy) ≈ P(Lukashenko says this | Putin is ill)