Just want to say that I moved from Kyiv to Lviv on Feb 13 /entirely/ thanks to this prediction thread and the Metaculus estimates. (Still in Lviv but leaving Ukraine later today.)
It’s hard to estimate the impact, but at the very least I have saved myself an enormous hassle trying to move all my possessions, finding an apartment in Lviv, etc on very short notice — which would have happened otherwise. Of course, worse outcomes were possible too if things had played out a bit differently.
Thank you, everyone.
— edited by availablegreen
@casens To see this in my inbox:
"Metaculus Notifications <notifications\@mg2.metaculus.com>
Resolved: Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?
Was probably the scariest moment of the whole year to me.
@alexrjl add a smile to here if you think the community prediction was good but we got lucky (at avoiding the virus)/unlucky (at having correct resolution).
Came here to note this paper also. For the record, when I wrote the question this is the sort of system I had in mind to resolve it. I doubt this actual system resolves it, but a future version of this system that did perform well enough would satisfy the "unified system" criterion.
Decision Desk HQ has called the election. Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. will be the 46th U.S. President.
The 100km clause is a reason to pin lower. This is a really, really weird definition of "large-scale rioting" that actually is more geared towards the question "will there be a really large riot somewhere in the United States in 2020" than "Will the US see large-scale rioting in 2020".
As a consequence I will ban you for a week. Please change your behaviour when you are back.
After transcribing the entire book and feeding it to GPT-3, I was able to get this response:
Question: What happened to the rabbit? Answer: The bear caught him and ate him.
My 'never predict on a question where the main thing you're forecasting is how a third party will evaluate a thing rather than the thing itself' rule may be long and poorly-written, but every once in a while it saves me 300 MIPs.
— edited by j.m.
my apologies for the mistaken resolution notification. no points have been awarded, predicting will continue.
@Roon I have also detected what may be a sign of covert support for Trump.
All across the nation, in red states and blue states, people are hanging orange lights on their houses; many even displaying orange gourds on their doorsteps, sometimes with elaborately carved faces on them. The number of sightings has increased dramatically over the last two weeks and shows no sign of abating. I take this to be a coded sign of support for the orange candidate in the race.
As of right now, today is the first day since GJI launched their question on Jan 28 that the superforecasters are above the Metaculus community when you aggregate their options, 80% vs 75%:
I like forecasting and want to make it easy for people to do it. I spend 2-5 hours a week on here anyway and I think I could happily look over and moderate questions in that time. I run a weekly collaborative forecasting call on the discord.
@liljaycup Hodges seems pretty unimpressive to me - at the end of that interview he says he signed onto a letter calling for a no-fly-zone because “we have to do something”, which doesn’t inspire confidence in his reasoning. His comments about the huge Russian convoy were also contradicted by Michael Kofman in yesterday’s War on the Rocks podcast. Wouldn’t be that surprised if he’s just become a lazy talking head since leaving the military.
— edited by occamsbulldog
@predictors I again apologize for the mistaken resolution email sent today. The fault is my own; and essentially comes down to me having more than one tab open and not seeing which question I was resolving, until it was too late. I know tensions are quite high, and this error caused significant distress. The Metaculus team will be working on safeguards to prevent this kind of error in the future.
Emails are (in a small way) a bit like bombs -- they can't be un-delivered.