### availablegreen (62) Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?

Just want to say that I moved from Kyiv to Lviv on Feb 13 /entirely/ thanks to this prediction thread and the Metaculus estimates. (Still in Lviv but leaving Ukraine later today.)

It’s hard to estimate the impact, but at the very least I have saved myself an enormous hassle trying to move all my possessions, finding an apartment in Lviv, etc on very short notice — which would have happened otherwise. Of course, worse outcomes were possible too if things had played out a bit differently.

Thank you, everyone.

— edited by availablegreen

### Jgalt (41) When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

DeepMind: [Gato🐈a scalable generalist agent that uses a single transformer with exactly the same weights to play Atari, follow text instructions, caption images, chat with people, control a real robot arm, and more](https://twitter.com/DeepMind/status/1524770016259887107) DeepMind publication: [A Generalist Agent](https://www.deepmind.com/publications/a-generalist-agent) >Abstract >Inspired by progress in large-scale language modelling, we apply a similar approach towards building a single generalist agent beyond the realm of text outputs. The agent, ...

### alexrjl (39) Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?

@alexrjl add a smile to here if you think the community prediction was good but we got lucky (at avoiding the virus)/unlucky (at having correct resolution).

### Anthony (30) When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Came here to note this paper also. For the record, when I wrote the question this is the sort of system I had in mind to resolve it. I doubt this actual system resolves it, but a future version of this system that did perform well enough would satisfy the "unified system" criterion.

### orion.tjungarryi (30) Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?

For reference, I surveyed battles/sieges listed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine not including ones involving Kyiv. Mauripol was first surrounded sometime in the period March 2-4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Mariupol, so it's been holding out for 8-10 days. Mauripol has about 500k population. Kherson, which is around half the size of Mauripol (250k population) fell about 4 days after it was surrounded https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kherson Kharkiv, with 1.5 million people, has been the site of battles s...

### Pablo (29) Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?

Decision Desk HQ has called the election. Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. will be the 46th U.S. President.

### Tayaama (29) Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?

The 100km clause is a reason to pin lower. This is a really, really weird definition of "large-scale rioting" that actually is more geared towards the question "will there be a really large riot somewhere in the United States in 2020" than "Will the US see large-scale rioting in 2020".

### RyanBeck (29) Spring 2022 Moderator Election

# RyanBeck Candidacy Hi everyone, I'm Ryan. I've been forecasting since 2020 and have been active here since early 2021. I'm in the top 50 in [all-time points earned](https://www.metaculus.com/rankings/) on Metaculus, I've forecasted on 988 separate questions, authored [51 questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=author:RyanBeck), and authored [4 notebooks](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?status=notebook&search=author:RyanBeck). I'm interested in becoming a moderator because I think forecasting is important and I'd like to see it grow ...

### Sylvain (29) Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?

@GameTheory both your comments are in violation of our Etiquette rules 1 through 7 and our Moderation rule 3. I believe that's a record. To be explicit, your comments are:

• Low quality.
• Disrespectful.
• Insulting.
• Conflictual.
• Strongly political.
• Intolerant.
• Calling for violence.

As a consequence I will ban you for a week. Please change your behaviour when you are back.

### devetec (28) When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, "I Want My Hat Back"?

After transcribing the entire book and feeding it to GPT-3, I was able to get this response:

Question: What happened to the rabbit? Answer: The bear caught him and ate him.

### shibboleth (28) Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?

There is a pattern I see repeatedly with stories about North Korea that later turn out to be false. (Like the last time [Kim Jong-un was reported to be dead in 2016](https://www.nknews.org/2016/06/false-alarm-on-kim-jong-uns-death-shakes-south-korea/), or [the time he was reported to have been assassinated in Beijing in 2012](https://nationalpost.com/news/kim-jong-un-assassination-rumours-flood-twitter-weibo), or the time in 2008 "credible" publications like the BBC were giving airtime to a Japanese professor [who said Kim Jong-il died in 2003 and was re...

### j.m. (28) Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?

My 'never predict on a question where the main thing you're forecasting is how a third party will evaluate a thing rather than the thing itself' rule may be long and poorly-written, but every once in a while it saves me 300 MIPs.

— edited by j.m.

### Jgalt (28) How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?

@Roon I have also detected what may be a sign of covert support for Trump.

All across the nation, in red states and blue states, people are hanging orange lights on their houses; many even displaying orange gourds on their doorsteps, sometimes with elaborately carved faces on them. The number of sightings has increased dramatically over the last two weeks and shows no sign of abating. I take this to be a coded sign of support for the orange candidate in the race.

### ClayGraubard (27) Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?

As of right now, today is the first day since GJI launched their question on Jan 28 that the superforecasters are above the Metaculus community when you aggregate their options, 80% vs 75%:

• 64%: Donetsk and/or Luhansk oblasts + other Ukrainian territory
• 15%: Donetsk and/or Luhansk oblasts only (includes separatist- and Ukrainian-controlled areas)
• 1%: Only other Ukrainian territory

# NathanpmYoung Candidacy

I like forecasting and want to make it easy for people to do it. I spend 2-5 hours a week on here anyway and I think I could happily look over and moderate questions in that time. I run a weekly collaborative forecasting call on the discord.

### ClayGraubard (26) Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?

Moscow Bureau Chief for the FT on Twitter:

Putin speaking now: he says Russia has recognized the separatist's claim to the whole Donbas. This is as close as you can get to declaring war.

For context, Ukraine controls ~70% of that territory.

— edited by ClayGraubard

### occamsbulldog (26) Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?

@liljaycup Hodges seems pretty unimpressive to me - at the end of that interview he says he signed onto a letter calling for a no-fly-zone because “we have to do something”, which doesn’t inspire confidence in his reasoning. His comments about the huge Russian convoy were also contradicted by Michael Kofman in yesterday’s War on the Rocks podcast. Wouldn’t be that surprised if he’s just become a lazy talking head since leaving the military.

— edited by occamsbulldog

### misha (25) Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?

There are huge disagreements between different forecasting platforms about whether the Olympics will happen or not. Surely, the questions are different in the ways meaningfully affecting their resolutions; but I still can't comprehend the contradictions. Here are the questions (along with the important bits of clarifications): - Good Judgement Open: Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? Postponement(s) alone would not count. - Polymarket: Will the Tokyo Summer Olympic...

### Laplace (25) Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?

Prior (Poisson process): Russia has invaded three times in the past 20 years (Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014, Ukraine 2022). Call that $$\frac{3 + 1 invasions}{22 + 1 year} \approx$$ 20%/year. Remove a 1/6th because we are 1/6 of the way through the year to get $$\approx$$ 17% In the past there's been 3-month+ lead times where Russia's amassed troops around another country. If we say Russia does not have such a troop build-up now and a 3 month lead-time is required 80% of the time, we're down to 13% chance of an invasion this year. But perhaps Russia _...

### Gaia (25) Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?

Resolving positively today, February 23, 2022 at 6:49pm Pacific Time based on: 1. Russian President Vladimir [Putin's emergency speech](https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1496718133746405377?s=20&t=8Y5JHlLf4bdKX2yyaefk5Q) stating ["We have decided to launch a special military action"](https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1496678639911510024). 2. US President Joe Biden's [statement](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/23/statement-by-president-biden-on-russias-unprovoked-and-unjustified-attack-on-ukraine/): "The ...