@alexrjl add a smile to here if you think the community prediction was good but we got lucky (at avoiding the virus)/unlucky (at having correct resolution).

The 100km clause is a reason to pin lower. This is a really, really weird definition of "large-scale rioting" that actually is more geared towards the question "will there be a really large riot somewhere in the United States in 2020" than "Will the US see large-scale rioting in 2020".

After transcribing the entire book and feeding it to GPT-3, I was able to get this response:

Question: What happened to the rabbit? Answer: The bear caught him and ate him.

There is a pattern I see repeatedly with stories about North Korea that later turn out to be false. (Like the last time [Kim Jong-un was reported to be dead in 2016](https://www.nknews.org/2016/06/false-alarm-on-kim-jong-uns-death-shakes-south-korea/), or [the time he was reported to have been assassinated in Beijing in 2012](https://nationalpost.com/news/kim-jong-un-assassination-rumours-flood-twitter-weibo), or the time in 2008 "credible" publications like the BBC were giving airtime to a Japanese professor [who said Kim Jong-il died in 2003 and was re...

My 'never predict on a question where the main thing you're forecasting is how a third party will evaluate a thing rather than the thing itself' rule may be long and poorly-written, but every once in a while it saves me 300 MIPs.

— edited by j.m.

@Roon I have also detected what may be a sign of covert support for Trump.

All across the nation, in red states and blue states, people are hanging orange lights on their houses; many even displaying orange gourds on their doorsteps, sometimes with elaborately carved faces on them. The number of sightings has increased dramatically over the last two weeks and shows no sign of abating. I take this to be a coded sign of support for the orange candidate in the race.

Probably too late, but I’m not big fan of the down arrow for comments. A lack of positive likes sends a message just as much as down arrows without looking as negative.

— edited by Rexracer63

There are huge disagreements between different forecasting platforms about whether the Olympics will happen or not. Surely, the questions are different in the ways meaningfully affecting their resolutions; but I still can't comprehend the contradictions. Here are the questions (along with the important bits of clarifications): - Good Judgement Open: Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? Postponement(s) alone would not count. - Polymarket: Will the Tokyo Summer Olympic...

The Wuhan Coronavirus is looking like a pandemic event that could be serious enough to threaten this outcome.

I don't think you've really understood the 538 forecast. Or for that matter the 'shy trump voter' hypothesis, which seems very unlikely to exist given various analyses of different types of polling, but at least resembles a coherent thought.

What a fascinating question! As I see it, there are several differnet organizations that might hope to send humans to the moon in the next few decades: 1. China is very interested in eventually visiting the moon, using a mission architecture similar to Apollo. 2. Some private US company, like SpaceX or Blue Origin, could concievably put together a moon mission with 100% non-government money. 3. The US government, via NASA and perhaps also "commercial crew"-style contracts with private space companies. One complication is that, if NASA decided to reall...
# michal_dubrawski ("Michał" on discord) Candidacy Hi, it was suggested to me that our mods might need more help. As most of you know I am not a native English speaker, and my English is as it is. I also might currently not have much time each week to work as a mod, but as Sylvain said on the discord it would be better to "have many hands doing a little bit of work, than rely on too few overworked mods". If the community accepts me as a mod this time, I will do my best to provide help, even if this wouldn't be much each week. This time up to thre...

Thank you for the warm welcome @Anthony! It’s been an honor to work with this amazing team for the last year, and I’m excited to take things to the next level and help accelerate Metaculus’s growth in the years ahead.

We have some exciting updates and opportunities on the horizon, with much more to come, and I’m confident that we have what it takes to keep growing the platform and strengthening our reputation and position as an innovation leader in the forecasting industry.

Onward, Gaia

@Anthony I think this should just close ambiguously and a new question should be opened.

It seems plausible at this point that it'll never be settled, so maybe requiring unanimity isn't a great idea for a longer resolution date.

This looks like Metaculus's worst continuous question prediction to date, by a significant margin...

@(galaga) the question terms were "will gamestop reach 420.69 by **end of year**", so the question was open for a wide period (initially to the end of november, then revised to end of march). when a question resolves early, usually it is appropriate to not change the closing date, so you're awarded points for only a fraction of the total period (about 3 days out of 60, here). if this rule were not in place, it would create an incentive to always predict 99% early in the question, then gradually revise down to 1% as the question approaches the close dat...

@ImminentDownfall Welcome to Metaculus. This site is not a discussion forum, but a forecasting platform. See here for details and, in particular, note that

Metaculus aims at a high level of discourse. Comments should be on topic, relevant and interesting as much as possible. Much less welcome are highly (and especially irrelevantly) opinionated, spammy, aggressive, or low-information comments.

Anyone interested in an in-person Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?

@(D0TheMath) On the one hand, this is extremely impressive. On the other hand - come on, there's no way, right? I think this would qualify as an *[impossibly](http://nautil.us/blog/impossibly-hungry-judges)* impressive forecast. Looking more closely at the paper, what it's saying seems to be that empirically, US political instability is cyclic with peaks every ~50 years, going back. That's pretty reasonable; maybe it's true for generational reasons. But it gives a rough estimate of "superimposed cycles with periods of 50 +- 10 years", which means that i...